Zhou’s views and investment suggestions
In 2021, there were 3.167 million registered catering enterprises and 885000 cancelled catering enterprises in China. The speed of entry and clearance reached a new high. We believe that the reasons for this phenomenon are as follows: 1) the entry barrier of the catering industry itself is low, and some catering enterprises may be too optimistic about the recovery speed of the epidemic and fail to grasp the rhythm of opening stores. 2) The online transformation of old stores is difficult, and the barriers of online Red stores are low and the scarcity is difficult to maintain.
From the perspective of subdivided industries, the popularity of traditional hot pot in the hot pot industry has declined, and characteristic hot pot has been emerging. The high-end brands in the tea industry are under pressure, and the middle and low-end brands have a good development momentum. The blood exchange rate of the baking industry is fast, and the financing and store expansion events of cutting-edge brands are increasing. On the whole, the registration growth rate of catering related enterprises has accelerated, and the development momentum of the catering industry has not decreased.
In today’s industry where creativity is easy to be copied and passenger flow is easy to be diverted, it is particularly important to improve the long-term repurchase rate of customers and prolong the vitality of enterprises. We continue to be optimistic about the categories with addiction, high degree of standardization and strong social attributes, such as coffee, tavern, hot pot, etc; And platform catering enterprises with strong incubation ability of new brands, perfect supply chain and leading organization and management.
Last week’s catering data tracking: the epidemic relapsed point by point last week, the consumption pressure of catering stores around the country was large, and the recovery rate of takeout consumption was better. According to the data of delicious food last week (2022 / 2 / 26 ~ 2022 / 3 / 4), the catering flow is still under pressure, but there has been a marginal improvement trend. The number of stores has returned to 69.1% on the benchmark day, and the consumption intensity of in store and takeout has decreased by 3.1% and increased by 6.4% on average compared with the benchmark day.
Investment suggestion: Catering suggestions focus on the main brand single store model, which is efficient and maintains a stable rhythm of expanding stores; Social scenes can replace Helen’s company with weak substitutability and high degree of standardization. The hotel pays attention to the industrial rebound opportunities in the future recovery process, and it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (2022 / 2 / 26 ~ 2022 / 3 / 4), CSI 300 and hang seng index fell by 1.7%, 3.8% and social services (Shenwan) rose by 2.3% respectively. In breakdown, catering A-share and Hong Kong stock index rose by 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, hotel A-share and Hong Kong stock index rose by 6.4% and 0.2% respectively.
Industry news: 1) since the beginning of the year, China’s coffee industry has seen an increase in financing and store expansion events. Postal coffee and blue bottle coffee have opened their first stores in China. 2) Naixue’s tea and Yum combine the elements of meta universe to create virtual IP and virtual characteristic restaurant.
Announcement of key companies: Haidilao changes its CEO, and the new CEO is the former deputy CEO and part-time coo Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) released the performance express of 2021, realizing the revenue of 3.88 billion yuan / + 18.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 550 million yuan / + 18.5% Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) released the performance express of 2021, realized revenue of 6.15 billion yuan / + 16.5%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 56 million yuan, and reversed losses; Weiqian pre surplus.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
