Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: it is expected that the sales volume in China will not be weak in the off-season in February, and the overseas market as a whole meets the expectation. 1) China: according to grassroots research, terminal delivery recovered rapidly in late February, and the overall off-season was not light; 2) Overseas: 9 European countries sold 128000 vehicles in February, with a month on month increase of + 7%, a year-on-year increase of + 33%, and an electrification penetration rate of 20%, maintaining a high level.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may increase the uncertainty in Europe. At present, there is little disturbance to the stability of the supply chain. The harness production capacity of Ukraine accounts for about 5% of the total. The shortage of supply chains such as harnesses concerned by the market is not serious. In February, the United States sold 59000 electric vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 11% and a year-on-year increase of + 106%, and the electrification penetration rate continued to rise to 5.7%; 3) According to our grassroots research, the sales volume planning goal of the head main engine factory in 22 years is ambitious, and the increment of terminal sales may further focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain. How big is the impact of price shock on car sales? Resume historical experience such as the oil crisis in the 1970s. We believe that the fluctuations of GDP and automobile sales are basically the same, while industrial shocks, such as the rise of oil prices and bulk raw materials, produce more structural effects and have less impact on the overall sales. This is because cars are different from other consumer goods. Cars are one of the consumer goods with the widest selling price.
Parts: the price fluctuation of raw materials intensifies, and the leader of the long logic circuit ushers in the layout opportunity. The recent rise of raw materials such as aluminum has caused the market to worry about the pressure on the cost side of parts. We believe that the long logic circuit leader ushers in the medium-term layout opportunity. Incrementally pay attention to the supply chain of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other leading automobile enterprises, and pay attention to the track with large marginal increase in penetration and localization rate. We expect that in 22 years, the volume elasticity of the whole vehicle link will focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain; Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The direction of increasing localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: the price system fluctuates in this round, and the competitive advantage of strong bargaining leader is expected to expand. Focus on the changes in profit distribution caused by price transmission in the industrial chain. 1. In February, the off-season of midstream production scheduling is not light. From March, the new production capacity of midstream head company will be put into operation gradually, and the chain ratio of production scheduling will be greatly improved. The sector has recently retreated to near pe30x in 22 years and entered the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with accelerated localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1. European countries released vehicle sales in February. 2. Autoinnovate released the sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States in February. 3. Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) announce the performance forecast for 2021. 4. Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) issued an announcement to become a batch supplier of air supply unit assembly products of air suspension system for the new platform project of a head independent brand main engine factory in China. Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
