Industry perspective
The four main downstream of lithium are: power battery, consumer battery, energy storage battery and traditional industry.
The cost of lithium power battery accounts for 8%, and the demand in 22 years is basically met
The price of lithium rose to 500000 / ton, and the cost of lithium in lithium iron phosphate vehicle, ternary vehicle, electric bicycle and electric tool accounted for 8.42%, 7.89%, 6% and 2.44% respectively. For every 100000 yuan increase in lithium price, the cost of lithium iron phosphate vehicle increases by 3807 yuan, and the proportion of lithium cost increases by 1.7%; The cost of Sanyuan vehicle increased by 5363 yuan, and the proportion of lithium cost increased by 1.6%; The proportion of lithium cost of electric bicycles and electric tools increased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively.
According to the view of guojindian new group, electric vehicles have entered the spontaneous demand drive of the C-end. Factors such as the decline of subsidies and the rise of upstream prices worried by the market recently are expected to have little impact on the terminal in 22 years. It is estimated that the global output of new energy vehicles will be 10 million in 22 years. According to the supply of 700000 tons of LCE in 22 years, excluding the consumption of lithium in other fields, it is estimated that it can still meet the demand of 9-10 million new energy vehicles.
The cost of lithium consumption battery accounts for less than 1%, which is basically unaffected
The price of lithium rose to 500000 / ton, and the cost of lithium in 3C products such as 4G / 5G mobile phones, laptops and tablets accounted for 0.29% / 0.14%, 0.3% and 0.23% respectively. For every 100000 yuan increase in lithium price, its cost proportion will rise by less than 0.1%. The rise of lithium price has little impact on the price and demand of 3C products.
The energy storage battery is highly price sensitive, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed
The price of lithium rose to 500000 / ton, and the cost of lithium in 5g Acer station and portable energy storage accounted for 7.93% and 9.79% respectively. For every 100000 increase in lithium price, the proportion of lithium cost increases by 1.6% and 2% respectively. Energy storage enterprises are generally highly price sensitive, but the industry is in a period of rapid growth, with large market space and high degree of enterprise participation. At present, the proportion of demand is relatively low, and the impact and transmission path of subsequent price increases still need to be observed.
The demand of traditional industries is rigid, and some cannot be replaced, which is expected to affect up to 30000 tons of LCE
The price of lithium rose to 500000 / ton, and the cost of lithium in glass, daily / building ceramics and lithium based grease accounted for 10.78%, 0.06% / 0.6% and 32.5% respectively. The demand for glass industrial products is greatly affected by the price rise. Except that lithium must be used for glass ceramics, other varieties are likely to reduce production; The cost of ceramic lithium accounts for less than 1%, and the impact is limited; Lithium base grease accounts for more than 30% of the lithium cost corresponding to the lithium price of 500000 / ton, but it is difficult to replace the soap base, and the lithium base still occupies the dominant position, which is not easy to reduce production. It is expected that the rise in lithium price will affect the demand of traditional part of 30000 tons at most.
Investment suggestion & investment object
Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading companies Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium industry, flexible targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , etc.
Risk tips
High prices reverse demand, and downstream demand such as electric vehicles does not meet expectations; The output release of lithium company did not meet the expectations, resulting in the performance not meeting the expectations; The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases.
