Industry resumption: the real estate expectation determines the valuation trend, and the order performance affects the repair height.
After 2016, there was a wave of listing in the household sector and experienced the peak and downward stage of real estate sales. At the valuation level, the sector experienced two rounds of valuation downward and repair in the past five years with the expected fluctuations of the convergence of the sales completion scissors and the tightening of policies and the intensification of the credit risk of real estate enterprises. After reviewing the valuation level and real estate data of the home industry in the past five years, we can see that: 1) the downward valuation of the home sector is directly related to the real estate sales data (2018h2) and policy changes (2021h2); 2) There are two main lines of 2019h1 and 2019h1 respectively; 3) The repair height of valuation is linked to the prospect of individual stock orders (20q4-21q1). At the current time point, there is room for policy force, which will continue the time window of valuation repair.
Valuation level: 1) 20172018q3: real estate sales declined, and the valuation of the home sector was killed before the performance. In 2017 and 2018q1-3, the completed area of houses decreased by 4.4% and 11.4% year-on-year. Plate PE (TTM) decreased from 44 at the beginning of 2017q1 to 24 at the end of 2018q3. 2) 2018q4-2019q4: Sales completion scissors gap narrowed and home valuation repaired. Under the expectation of completion repair, the valuation of 2019h1 sector has been repaired, and the sector PE (TTM) fluctuates in the range of 20-30 times throughout the year. 3) 2020q1-2021q1: Sales and completion were repaired after the impact of the epidemic, and the home valuation increased throughout the year. In 2020q1 and 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area was - 26.32% and 2.64% respectively. The P / E ratio of the household industry increased from 19 times the low point under the impact of the epidemic to 30 times. 4) 2021q2-2021q4: sales fell sharply, and the policy bottom corresponds to the home valuation bottom. The year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area in 2021q1 and 2021q1-3 were 63.83% and 11.33% respectively. The rolling P / E ratio of 2020q1-q3 industry fell from 30 to 23, and Q4 rebounded to 27.
Performance level: the performance growth of leading enterprises leads the industry. Eight listed companies in the home furnishing sector were selected. The average growth rate of their retail business revenue in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021q1-3 was 28.62%, 16.37%, 7.75%, 1.75% and 33.44%, while the growth rate of furniture retail sales in the same period was + 12.80%, + 10.14% + 5.10%, - 7.00% and + 20.70%.
Current time point: gdp5 5% growth target + stable growth tone, there is room for real estate policy, and the home sector is still in the window of valuation and repair. Since this year, the real estate policy side has continuously released positive signals and relaxed the restrictions of real estate policy in many places. On March 5, the two sessions set the goal of "GDP growth of about 5.5%, emphasized" steady growth "and proposed" supporting commercial housing to meet reasonable housing demand ". Under the background of steady growth and promoting consumption, there is still room for policy.
Stock Outlook: after baptism, the head enterprise has toughness in operation, α Reflected in category and channel dimensions.
The real estate dividend faded, the industry experienced the first round of supply clearing, and the concentration was low and upward. From 2016 to 2020, software home CR3 increased by 12% from 5%, and customized home CR3 increased from 11.5% to 13% (some second tier brands benefited from cabinet coordination and bulk channel expansion, and the growth performance was better than that of the first tier). For the customization sector: the growth path of increasing customer unit price and pre channel traffic brought by expanding categories is still the main theme, and the power of high-quality dealers and terminal brands drives the maximization of economies of scope. Customized leaders with strong channel front-end, management and control ability and product expansion ability will continue to surpass their peers in the industry reshuffle. For the software sector: the long logic of pattern optimization continues to be deduced, and the wrestling categories and channels sink. Leading enterprises have stepped into the competitive bonus period, relying on brand advantages, channel barriers and category extension to improve market share.
Investment suggestions: 1) based on the dimension of category and channel extension, the long-term market share of head enterprises is clear, and the leading growth is expected to pass through the cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], and [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ], which has the expectation of management and operation improvement High growth of equity incentive target and high growth of independent brand retail business [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: the risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, the risk of decline in the prosperity of real estate, and the risk of deviation of calculation results
