Investment suggestions: 1) complete vehicles and parts: in January 2022, China’s automobile sales volume was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In the first month of the year, it achieved a slight positive growth. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the expectation of stable growth policy, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will be further improved in the first quarter of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to independent brands. Recently, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has had a certain impact on the global automotive industry. On the one hand, the new round of sanctions by the United States may further stimulate the rise in the prices of raw materials such as natural gas and oil in Europe. On the other hand, many semiconductor manufacturers around the world rely on some materials from Russia and Ukraine, such as neon and palladium, which will further aggravate the risk of interruption of supply of semiconductor raw materials. In the short term, it will have a direct impact on the export of China’s automobile industry to Russia. In the long term, the rising commodity prices caused by the upgrading of Russia and Ukraine will also raise the production costs of the automobile manufacturing industry. 2) . new energy vehicles: in January 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8%. Under the background of rising prices of terminal products and high raw material prices of some auto enterprises, the sales performance was slightly better than the market expectation. In the government work report on March 5, the consumption of new energy vehicles was encouraged again, carbon neutralization was promoted in an orderly manner, and the action plan for carbon peak was implemented, Promote the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity, improve the incentive and restraint policies for pollution and carbon reduction, and accelerate the formation of a green production and lifestyle. The policy is expected to stabilize market expectations, and the consumption demand of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5.2 million this year. Therefore, it is still recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry.
Market review: last week, the automobile (Shenwan) industry index fell 4.47%, 2.78 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among them, the rise and fall of key sub industries in one week were – 4.75% for passenger cars, – 2.63% for commercial vehicles and – 4.80% for auto parts; The new energy vehicle index rose – 5.50%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.82 percentage points. Among them, the rise and fall of key sub industries in one week were – 8.47% for power battery, -3.91% for lithium positive electrode, -7.67% for lithium negative electrode, -4.36% for lithium diaphragm and – 6.85% for electrolyte.
Industry trends: 1) Beijing: actively promote new energy vehicles and speed up infrastructure construction; 2) . 2022 government work report mentions “double carbon”; 3) Ministry of industry and information technology: by the end of 2023, a standard system for Internet of vehicles network security and data security will be preliminarily established.
Company dynamics: 1), Changzhou Nrb Corporation(002708) : Announcement on receiving the notice of honeycomb transmission fixed point; 2) Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) : annual report for 2021; 3) Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) : report on issuing shares to purchase assets (Draft) (Revised); 4) Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co.Ltd(002091) : announcement of 2021 annual performance express.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
