Core conclusion
Industry Overview: the scale, share and quantity of public funds increased month on month in January. By the end of January, the total scale of public funds had reached 25.87 trillion yuan, QoQ + 1.2% / yoy + 25.6%; The total shares of public funds reached 22.82 trillion, QoQ + 4.7% / yoy + 30.6%; The total number of public funds reached 9428, QoQ + 1.5% / yoy + 17.3%. In terms of product categories, by the end of January, the scale of open-end / closed-end funds had reached 22.76/3.12 trillion yuan, QoQ + 1.4% / – 0.2%, yoy + 26.3% / + 21.3%; The shares of open-end and closed-end funds reached 19.90 trillion and 2.92 trillion respectively, QoQ + 5.4% / + 0.6%, yoy + 32.0% / + 21.9%; The number of open-end funds reached 1186% / + 1.7% + 1.8% and the number of closed-end funds reached 1187% / + 1.8% respectively.
In terms of fund size, the net value of stocks + hybrid funds fell month on month, with bonds and monetary funds as the main sources of increment. Affected by the market decline, as of the end of January, the scale of stock + hybrid fund was 8.07 trillion yuan, qoq-6.5% / yoy + 16.4%; Benefiting from the higher growth of net worth of bond funds (QoQ + 7.4%), the month on month gap of non commodity based scale narrowed by 4.5pcts to – 2.0% compared with stock + hybrid funds, and the scale decreased to 12.71 trillion yuan.
In terms of fund shares, stocks + mixed fund shares achieved contrarian growth. By the end of January, the shares of stock + mixed funds had reached 5.86 trillion, QoQ + 3.0% / yoy + 37.1%. In the case of market decline, investors chose to allocate additional stocks + mixed funds, and the shares increased month on month against the trend; Among them, the shares of stocks and hybrid funds were + 4.4% / + 2.4% month on month respectively. Non monetary fund shares reached 9.86 trillion, QoQ + 4.7% / yoy + 45.6%. QDII’s share in January achieved high growth year-on-year and month on month, QoQ + 8.2% / yoy + 77.9%, ranking first in growth rate.
In terms of the number of funds, the growth rate of the number of equity funds slowed down month on month. By the end of January, there were 5862 equity + hybrid funds, QoQ + 2.1% / yoy + 25.9%, with a month on month growth rate of 0.16pct higher than that in December 2021. Among them, affected by the lower than expected performance of new development funds, the month on month growth rate of equity funds slowed to 1.9% (down 0.45pct compared with the month on month growth rate in December 21); The number of hybrid funds increased by 2.1% month on month (0.43pct higher than the month on month growth rate in December of 21). The total number of non monetary funds is 7907, QoQ + 1.8% / yoy + 20.7%.
Investment suggestion: the short-term fluctuation of the market does not change the long-term steady growth trend of public funds. The industry will continue to benefit from the tide of transfer of residents’ wealth to equity assets. We believe that institutions with high content of public funds (i.e. institutions with high performance contribution of public funds) will continue to benefit from it. At the same time, the construction of the third pillar of pension has been continuously promoted recently, and the detailed rules are ready to come out. As an important participant in the third pillar of pension, public funds are expected to continue to benefit from the development dividend of the industry. We continue to recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and China stock market news, and suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H).
Risk warning: market fluctuation risk, policy implementation effect is less than expected, and credit risk.
