Key investment points:
In February, the overall performance of the carbon neutral 300 index was good, with an increase of 5.03%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and continued to rise since reaching the bottom on February 11. In February, the proportion of power equipment and new energy in the industry weight of carbon neutral 300 index increased. According to the first-class industry classification of CITIC, the top five industries with weight are power equipment and new energy respectively, accounting for 54.8%, with a total market value of 5281799 billion yuan; The power and public utilities industry accounted for 10.0%, with a total market value of 2370376 million yuan; The automobile industry accounts for 7.6%, with a total market value of 191568 billion yuan; The basic chemical industry accounts for 5.7%, with a total market value of 1386799 billion yuan; The machinery industry accounted for 5.2%, with a total market value of 736629 billion yuan.
Coal (2021): raw coal production continued to grow, imports turned from increase to decrease, and coal prices fell. With the continuous promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, 380 million tons of raw coal were produced in December, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 2.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, an increase of 10.7% over the same period in 2019, an average increase of 5.2% in two years, and an average daily output of 12.41 million tons; 30.95 million tons of coal were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. In 2021, 4.07 billion tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year, an increase of 5.6% over 2019, and an average increase of 2.8% over the two years; 320 million tons of coal were imported, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year.
Iron and steel (2021): the annual output of crude steel decreased year-on-year, the price of steel decreased slightly, and the import of iron ore decreased year-on-year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December, the national crude steel output was 103279 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; The output of pig iron in China was 868.57 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. Among them, the national crude steel and pig iron output in December were 86.19 million tons and 72.1 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and 5.4% respectively. According to the monitoring of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, at the end of December, China’s comprehensive steel price index was 131.70 points, down 0.67 points or 0.5% from the end of November. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, from January to December, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate in China was 112432 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Among them, the import volume in December was 86.07 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%.
By the end of February, CEA prices had fallen and the trading volume of the month had fallen sharply. In February, the total trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 1670615 tons, with a total turnover of 9642518081 yuan. The monthly trading volume of listing agreement trading is 192429 tons, the monthly turnover is 1110846281 yuan, the highest trading price is 60.00 yuan / ton, and the lowest trading price is 50.54 yuan / ton. The closing price on the last trading day of February is 57.74 yuan / ton, down 5.93% from the last trading day of January. The monthly volume of block agreement transactions is 1478186 tons, with a monthly turnover of 8531671800 yuan. By the end of February, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 188322429 tons, with a cumulative turnover of 816851018762 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated; (2) Intensifying geopolitical conflicts (3); Recurrent epidemic
