Core view
Focus on marginal easing expectations and continue to focus on the layout of recovery. Maintain sector "over allocation". Although the short-term epidemic situation is still repeated, with the promulgation of the service industry rescue policy and the marginal change of the attitude of some epidemic prevention and control experts, investors now expect a "marginal improvement" in the epidemic prevention and control situation after March, and the worst moment of the industry has passed. Based on the uncertainty of short-term repeated outbreaks and the positive expectation of a midline epidemic stabilizing on the back line, based on the 3-6-month dimension, and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic, based on the uncertainty of short-term repeated short-term uncertainties and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic stabilizing the midline epidemic, and the three-six-month dimension, based on the three-six-month dimension, based on the three-six-month dimension, based on the uncertainty of repeated short-term outbreaks and repeated uncertainties of repeated short-term outbreaks and the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic, the positive expectation of a mid line epidemic stabilizing, based on the three-six-six-month dimension, slightly repeating Soviet logic, slightly repeating Soviet logic, and taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter, etc. taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter, etc. preferred preferred Guangxi Wuzhou Zhongheng Group Co.Ltd(600252) 52525252525252525258\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Huazhu group-s, yum China-s Submarine fishing, etc. Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to be based on the high-quality leader of the boom sub circuit, combined with the logical changes of the middle line, and focus on recommending China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, Huazhu group-s, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue's tea, etc.
Keep, an online fitness leader, plans to be listed in Hong Kong. The company is the largest online fitness platform in China and the world (calculated according to the number of active users and exercises completed by users in 2021). Backed by the development dividend of China's fitness industry (large base and low penetration) and the accelerated penetration of online fitness after the epidemic, the company has built three product lines of "online fitness content + Intelligent fitness equipment + supporting sports products", with rapid growth. From 2019 to 2021, the monthly number of active users is 2180 / 2970 / 34.4 million; In 2020, the company's revenue was 1.1 billion yuan / + 67%, and the revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was + 41%, but the loss expanded due to the increase of marketing. In the future, normalization will be the growth center of offline fitness, and the improvement of user retention, content and hardware realization will become the key.
In February, education stocks rose ahead, but the performance of tourism sector was differentiated. In February, the social service sector index fell 0.03%, outperforming the market by 1.10pct, mainly due to the rebound of the education sector, while the tourism sector showed relative differentiation.
In 2021, the tax-free gap between China and South Korea will be narrowed, and Beijing plans to add port duty-free stores. In 2021, the gap between the sales of duty-free stores in Hainan, China (US $9.5 billion) and that in South Korea (US $14.7 billion) narrowed. 1.1-2.13 the sales of duty-free stores in Hainan is + 70%, but the recent epidemic has been repeated or affected. Beijing will add duty-free shops at ports, expand the scale of duty-free shops at airports and support the sale of high-quality domestic products.
In January, the RevPAR of the hotel recovered 60%, and the headquarters of Songcheng Hangzhou is expected to reopen on March 5. Hotels: according to STR data, RevPAR of hotels recovered to 60% before the epidemic in January. Performing Arts: Song Cheng performed 8-9 times a day from 2.7 to 2.28. Projects such as Sanya, Lijiang and Guilin are in operation. It is expected that the headquarters of Hangzhou will resume on March 5.
Under the repeated influence of the epidemic, catering leaders accelerated the pace of capitalization. Up to now, green tea, qixintian, rural base, Laowang and Yang Guofu have submitted the prospectus of Hong Kong stocks. At the same time, local chicken, Hefu Laomian and Lao Niang's uncle plan to be listed. Among them, the rural base mainly focuses on direct marketing and dual brand channels, and Yang Guofu focuses on franchise expansion.
Risk tips: natural disasters, epidemic situation, political and other systematic risks; Policy risk; The acquisition is lower than expected, etc
