Main points:
Nonferrous Metals outperformed the market this week, with a decline of 0.96%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11% to close at 344765; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.93% to close at 1302046; The CSI 300 fell 1.68% to close at 449643.
Base metal
The overall metal market cycle is relatively strong. Futures market: LME nickel, aluminum, zinc, copper, tin and lead increased by 20.30%, 13.62%, 12.83%, 7.51%, 7.35% and 3.75% over the same period last week. China’s spot market: nickel, zinc, aluminum, copper and tin increased by 6.52%, 3.19%, 2.76%, 2.59% and 0.44% respectively; Lead decreased by 0.32%. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased energy costs, and the market’s concern about the rising supply side has boosted metal prices. Copper: copper prices rose significantly this week. At present, the supply of copper mines remains high, the resumption of production of China’s downstream smelting and processing enterprises is slow, the spread of the epidemic in many places has dragged down consumption to a certain extent, and the recovery of market demand is less than expected. China’s supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose, and China’s copper market still has accumulated reserves. As of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 168000 tons, up 5.61% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices rose slightly this week. As a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is great uncertainty in European energy supply, the prices of natural gas and other energy continue to rise, and the scale of electrolytic aluminum production reduction in Europe may expand. In the Chinese market, aluminum factories in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia began to resume production, the supply of electrolytic aluminum increased gradually, the downstream consumption recovered slowly, and the demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 34.52 tons, up 2.77% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price of new energy metals showed strong performance this week. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 552000 yuan / ton, up 0.36% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is relatively stable. The price of cobalt sulfate is 116000 yuan / ton, up 1.75% from last week; The price of Co3O4 was 432500 yuan / ton, up 1.17% from last week. The epidemic situation in South Africa is repeated, the port policy is tightened, the transportation is blocked, and the current situation of cobalt supply shortage continues. On the demand side, the consumption expectation of new energy vehicles and other fields is optimistic, but affected by the macro uncertainty, the market wait-and-see sentiment is increasing, and the cobalt price operates smoothly in the short term. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt rose. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 455000 yuan / ton, up 3.41% year-on-year from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 440500 yuan / ton, up 7.31% year-on-year from last week. Lithium prices continued to rise this week. Some lithium salt plants are still in the maintenance stage, and the tight supply of lithium resources in the upstream remains unchanged. In terms of demand, the terminal new energy market has maintained a high boom, with strong demand for goods. Under the tight situation of supply and demand, it is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of lithium in Salt Lake: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machinery; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
Precious metals fluctuated upward as a whole this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1974.9/oz, up 4.49% from last week; Spot gold in London was US $1945.3/oz, up 3.21% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $25.89/oz, up 6.48% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $25.15/ounce, up 3.88%. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, with strong risk aversion of market funds. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine leads to tight energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, which contributes to the sustained high inflation and forms a short-term support for the price of gold. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The European energy crisis continues to ferment; Risk of policy changes.
