Core view
The prospect of Russia Ukraine negotiations is unclear, and the price of industrial metals continues to rise
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the negotiations between the two sides are not progressing smoothly; Western countries have expanded sanctions against Russia, and many Russian banks will be banned from using swift system. Meanwhile, Rusal closed its alumina refinery in Ukraine, and Russia accounted for more than 5% of the global primary aluminum supply. The market was worried that the sanctions against Russia and the possible escalation of conflict would affect the global metal and energy supply. Industrial metals rose generally this week, and LME copper rose 7.36% to close at US $10600 / ton; LME aluminum rose 14.39% to close at US $3840.5/ton; LME lead rose 4.05% to close at US $2464.5/ton; LME zinc rose 12.94% to close at US $4090 / ton; LME tin rose 7.38% to close at US $47750 / ton; LME nickel rose 19.58% to close at US $29130 / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
The Ministry of industry and information technology encouraged the development of lithium resources, and the price of lithium carbonate remained strong under the mismatch of supply and demand
This week, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the ministry would moderately speed up the development of China’s lithium resources and crack down on hoarding and driving up prices. Relevant Chinese enterprises are also accelerating the layout of mine resources. This week Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) announced the acquisition of Australian battery company to lock in the supply of kenticha lithium mine in Ethiopia. However, the mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources still exists in the short term, and the price still has room to rise. This week, industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 5.21% to close at 485000 yuan / ton; Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 5.21% to close at 505000 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) .
Steady growth target established, China’s metal prices fluctuated upward
On March 5, the government work report clearly pointed out that this year’s GDP target growth rate was about 5.5%; The steady growth policy may accelerate the implementation, and the recovery of demand, the development of infrastructure and the relaxation of real estate policy are expected to boost non-ferrous metal consumption. At the same time, China’s electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed production steadily, and Yunnan has fully relaxed the power consumption of green aluminum projects. Compared with the external market, China’s aluminum price has risen steadily. Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.62% to close at 72740 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 3.22% to close at 23635 yuan / ton; Lead fell – 0.58% to close at 15455 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 4.46% to close at 25865 yuan / ton; Tin rose 1.07% to close at 342020 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 5.33% to close at 188350 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine raised risk aversion and inflation expectations, and the gold price approached the highest point during the epidemic
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased, and the rising risk aversion in the market supports the rise of gold price. At the same time, the sharp rise in the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil and natural gas has triggered concerns about inflation. Comex gold closed at US $1974.9/oz, approaching the highest point during the epidemic. This week, spot gold in London rose 4.33% to close at US $197095/oz, while the US dollar index rose 2.04% to close at 95.51; COMEX gold rose 4.62% to close at US $196660 per ounce this week, while Comex Silver Rose 7.87% to close at US $25.79 per ounce. The volatile situation in Ukraine may continue, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.
Risk warning: geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty and lower than expected downstream demand.
