Banking stocks: the industry index rebounded
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 0.03%, 0.13% and 3.49% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 13th, 11th and 2nd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) rose by 5.40%, 5.34% and 4.80% respectively. On a monthly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) rose by 6.05%, 5.09% and 4.36% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) achieved an increase of more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: the net withdrawal of money and the decline of inter-bank market interest rate
The total amount of money put in this week was 385 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 815 billion yuan, and the net return of money was 430 billion yuan, a decrease of 119 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has achieved a net return of 430 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate decreased.
On March 4, dr001 was 1.94%, down 32bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.05%, down 48bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.97%, down 27bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.16%, down 18 BPS from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m interbank certificate of deposit increased, the issuing interest rate of 3M interbank certificate of deposit was the same as last Friday, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificate of deposit decreased. On March 4, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.35%, 2.46% and 2.59% respectively, which were + 9bps, flat and – 3bps compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China US Treasury bonds narrowed
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term spread narrowed. On March 4, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.11% and 2.81% respectively, with changes of + 8bps and + 4bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.71%, down 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On March 4, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.05% and 1.74% respectively, with changes of – 8bps and – 23bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.69%, down 15bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased and the yield of tips decreased
(1) on March 4, the US guaranteed overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) On March 3, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.71%, up 9bps compared with last Friday; (3) On March 4, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.93%, down 36bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
First, in a volatile market, the short-term fluctuation of banks has come off the track. Second, in the government work report, it is clear to expand the scale of new loans, and the expectation of steady growth is more sufficient. Third, in early March, listed banks will publish annual reports one after another, and we expect to catalyze the rise of share prices. Fourth, the impact of international peripheral conflicts is gradually declining. Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio.
This week, we will add Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) to the recommended portfolio: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
