Key investment points:
This week’s business retail investment view: platform traffic support superimposed on the promotion of warm-up activities. This year’s 38 goddess Festival has performed well. Under multiple factors such as the new regulations on efficiency, the improvement of the inspection threshold + the increase of the bargaining power of super head anchor + the increase of traffic cost, it is expected that the leader will be strong. It is recommended Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , focusing on Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) .
The dragon head performed brilliantly when the March 8th goddess Festival came. (1) Platform mechanism: tmall platform pre-sale + spot two-stage preheating, multi gear full reduction activities superimposed live broadcast red envelope release; Vibrato tiktok supports flow support. JD supports the superposition of multiple coupons, and the activity intensity of the three platforms converges with that of the same period in 2021, slightly weaker than that of the double 11. (2) Price strategy: 1) brand participation: compared with the double 11, the participation of European and American brands is higher, the participation of domestic brands is slightly lower, and the bargaining power of super head live broadcast is improved, which is good for overseas well-known brands and domestic head brands; 2) Product launch end: the brand continues the large single product strategy, the participation of domestic and Japanese and Korean brands decreases slightly, and European and American brands increase new product promotion; 3) Product mix: change the way of “n gifts” from “double 11” to “1 formal dress”; 4) Discount strength: the discount strength is less than double 11, and the playing method is stable. Tiktok (3) sales performance: Tmall + jitter two platforms: GMV and -8.5% grew 44% and -8.5% in February and February, and the flow is not obvious in the off-season. The heat flow in the goddess Festival is higher than that in the three tiktok: 1) the platform side gives more support to the goddess Festival. 2) The anchor continues the double eleven play method and warms up in advance with the fan base and operation ability; 3) The brand gives multi-dimensional support to products and prices. Looking forward to the future, the super head cooperative brand is relatively stable and the product selection threshold is high, which is not conducive to the breaking circle of small and medium-sized brands. The strong head brand is always strong.
Cultivate diamonds: undertake the supply gap of natural diamonds, and consumer education promotes the penetration rate. The lower production cost of cultivating diamonds makes them absolutely cost-effective under the “beauty loving demand” of the millennial generation. Since 2021, diamond products and exclusive stores have been launched in the Chinese market. More like tiktok and other brands, continue to carry out consumer education in the platform of jitter, red book and other platforms. In 2022, China’s market volume can be expected. Because it is associated with the symbols of “eternity” and “love” represented by natural diamonds, it is expected to replicate or even surpass the terminal volume path of the U.S. market. From the supply side, the current high-temperature and high-pressure method is still the most stable and mature technical route. Listed companies such as Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) and others have technical barriers and production capacity barriers. At the same time, they have strong capital advantages and will maintain strong bargaining power in the industrial chain in the medium term. The business growth and profitability improvement route of companies related to diamond upstream production is relatively clear.
Tiktok: (1) Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) 1) the main brand Winona is sending the 38 goddess tiktok, and has deep cooperation with head anchor, and the channel of the jitter channel is in full swing. In January and February, Tmall + two two yoy+73% of shaking voice, and continuously consolidate Watsons, OTC and other channels under the line; 2) The product end is perfect. The official announced that Zhang Junning is the spokesperson for sunscreen, and the amount will be increased rapidly in the summer. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in 22 years will be 1.198 billion / yoy + 40%. (2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) 1: brand end: tiktok focuses on the field of makeup, products continue to upgrade, Tmall is stable, vibrato, and 22 years or exceed expected growth; 2) Product side: R & D empowerment is optimistic about the innovation and improvement of large single product matrix; 3) Channel side: the main brand Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) goddess Festival exceeded the sales volume of the whole cycle of last year in 58 minutes. Tmall platform, the main brand, grew significantly, ranked higher month on month, and offline channels transformed smoothly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 747 million / yoy + 25% in 22 years.
Resumption of this week’s market & key news: (1) rise and fall of retail index: the commercial trade sector fell by 1.61% this week, of which cosmetics / medical beauty / mother and baby / Jewelry / retail changed by – 3.34% / – 3.27% / – 1.45% / – 3.56% / 0.29% respectively; (2) Sector Valuation: 31.65x for commercial trade sector, 56.57x/48.63x/35.25x for cosmetics / medical beauty / mother and baby respectively; (3) Ranking of rise and fall this week: top three increases: Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) (+ 8.15%), Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) (+ 7.65%) and famous creative products (+ 5.38%); The top three declines: new oxygen (- 14.54%), Yixian e-commerce (- 12.32%), Yisi health (- 9.61%).
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Market competition intensifies risks; The risk of recurrent outbreaks.
