\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 053 Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) )
"Salt + clean energy" is the dual main business, and new energy is expected to usher in high growth: the company is a subordinate enterprise of Yunnan SASAC, and its main business includes salt industry and clean energy. The subsidiary, Yunnan Salt Industry Co., Ltd., whose products cover table salt, industrial salt, daily chemical salt, mirabilite, etc., is the only enterprise with table salt production and provincial wholesale license in Yunnan Province. Clean energy includes natural gas and new energy power generation. The company holds 52.51% equity of Yunnan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. and owns 18 natural gas branch (special) pipelines, 3 emergency gas source reserve centers and 1 CNG parent station in Yunnan Province. New energy power generation is the main development direction of the company in the future. At present, the company has built and operated 7 wind farms with a total installed capacity of 0.37gw. According to the fixed growth plan disclosed by the company on March 2, it is proposed to build Tongquan, Jinzhong (phase I) and Yongning wind power projects with a total installed capacity of 1.45gw. Together with Dayao wind power project, the total installed capacity of wind power under construction is 1.62gw. According to the company's announcement on January 14, the company plans to invest in the construction of 70000kw photovoltaic project in Huaning County to realize the "zero breakthrough" of photovoltaic power generation project. In the future, photovoltaic and wind power are expected to go hand in hand, and the new energy power generation sector is expected to usher in high growth.
Yunnan has unique advantages in wind resources and high quality of wind power assets in operation: according to the 14th five year plan of Yunnan Province, Yunnan Province plans to build 31 new energy bases with an installed capacity of 10.9gw, build "scenery water storage integration" bases in the lower reaches of Jinsha River, the middle and lower reaches of Lancang River and the Red River Basin, and 15gw of new energy installed capacity of "scenery fire storage integration" demonstration project, Total 9gw. According to the data of the energy administration, from 2015 to 2020, the utilization hours of wind power in Yunnan Province reached 2573, 2573, 2484, 2654, 2808 and 2837 hours respectively. Over the years, Yunnan Province has ranked the top two in China with Fujian Province. It has unique wind resources and broad development prospects. According to the disclosure of the company's 2020 annual report, the utilization hours of the four wind power companies in 2020 were Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) hours, of which the annual utilization hours of dahailiangzi wind power project and Dazhongshan wind power project during the reporting period were 407283 hours and 401269 hours respectively, far higher than the national average level. The company's 0.37gw wind power project in operation will achieve a total operating revenue of 456 million yuan, a net profit of 177 million yuan and a net profit of 478 million yuan per GW in 2020. Benefiting from the high utilization hours of Yunnan wind power, the company's wind power assets reflect high asset quality.
"Large groups and small companies" are expected to become a new energy development platform affiliated to Yunnan Province: the controlling shareholder of the company is Yunnan investment group. According to the data of its bond prospectus, by the end of March 2021, Yunnan Investment Group has a holding installed capacity of 3.99gw, including 414000 kW of hydropower, 578700 kW of new energy and 12.41gw of equity installed capacity; By 2025, the group aims to achieve a total installed capacity of 30GW, including 15gw for holding and 15gw for equity participation. According to the announcement of the company, in March 2019, when Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) group injected the assets of four wind power companies into the listed company, in order to solve the problem of horizontal competition, the group and its subordinate related enterprises signed the custody agreement with the listed company respectively, and entrusted the corresponding power generation business entities held by them to the listed company for management. In the normal operation and If the net profit after deduction is positive and can be profitable within 2 years, the asset injection process shall be started within 1 year when the conditions for injection into a listed company are met Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) group is the "main force" in the construction of new energy industry in Yunnan Province. The company is expected to use the strength of the group to build a provincial new energy development platform.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 2.268 billion yuan, 2.612 billion yuan and 3.931 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 14.0%, 15.2% and 50.5% respectively; The net profit was 245 million yuan, 306 million yuan and 584 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.0%, 24.8% and 90.5% respectively, and the corresponding PE was 29.7 times, 30.9 times and 16.2 times respectively, with outstanding growth; The investment rating of Buy-A is given for the first time, and the six-month target price is 12.0 yuan.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project promotion progress is less than expected, and the sales volume of salt products is declining
