\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Looking at the core competitiveness of the company after four years of resumption: the manufacturing advantage is still stable. Looking back on the operation in the past few years, under the background of rapid changes in the environment of the customized home industry, the company's revenue growth slowed down significantly in 201819 and then began to recover. According to the calculation of the performance forecast center in 2021, the compound growth rate of revenue in 20172021 was about 13.5%, and the compound growth rate of revenue in 2021 was 15.4%. At the same time, we also see that the core advantages of the company's production and manufacturing are still stable. The proportion of manufacturing expenses in operating costs will remain below 10% from 2017 to 2020, helping factories and channels reduce operating costs and supporting the quality of agents to continue to lead the industry.
The industry's channel focus may return to 2c, and the layout of multi-channel, multi brand and multi category will consolidate the comprehensive competitiveness. First, with the changes in the real estate market environment since 2021, household enterprises have adjusted the pace of bulk business expansion. It is expected that the channel focus of the customization industry may return to 2C in 22 years. Secondly, at the company level, based on the good retail channel foundation accumulated for many years, the recent system business is also undergoing positive changes: 1) in 2021, Yang Xin, a professional manager, was introduced to take charge of the main brand of " Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) " and the whole customized package C6 plan was launched at the product end (the unit value of the terminal is 60000 yuan), The customer unit value (the ex factory unit value of 2020 wardrobe is 13095 yuan and 9333 yuan respectively) still has great room for improvement, and the channel end strengthens active marketing to stimulate the vitality of the terminal; 2) The brand echelon is more clear. "Milanna" and "Simi" are positioned as young and high-end customized consumer groups respectively. The integration of all categories is promoted, and there is still a large space for opening stores; 3) The whole packaging channel is still in the early stage of development, and the Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brand recognition is high. After the whole packaging mode is gradually polished and mature, it is expected to add scale increment.
Different from the market view: 1) the market is worried about the continuous impact of the adjustment of bulk business on the company's 22-year revenue. We believe that on the one hand, the company expects the overall strategy of engineering business to remain stable by actively optimizing the customer structure and increasing the proportion of engineering agents; On the other hand, considering the principle of prudence, we conducted a sensitivity analysis on the revenue growth of the company in 2022 for bulk business. The results show that assuming that the customer value of the company's wardrobe increases by 10% in 2022, the revenue of bulk business is - 20%, - 10%, - 5% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding revenue growth in 2022 is 15.3%, 16.7% and 17.4% respectively. The overall impact is expected to be controllable. 2) The market is worried that the development of the company's cabinet retail is difficult. We believe that compared with the early days of simi, the current time point for the company to promote the cabinet retail business is more mature for three reasons: first, the production cost of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) cabinet has been optimized to ensure the proper profitability of the terminal; Second, most of the wardrobe agents in the system have greatly improved their acceptance and familiarity with the cabinet business after their continuous understanding of simi cabinets in recent years; Third, the refined decoration market has experienced significant adjustment in recent years, and the impact of the decoration trend in the cabinet retail market is expected to weaken marginally.
Profit forecast and investment rating: optimistic about the company's manufacturing advantages, support business reform, further stimulate channel vitality and strengthen terminal competitiveness. With the deepening of the "all channel, multi brand and multi category" strategy, the customer unit value of the main brand is improved, and the sub brand and packaged channels are accelerated, which is expected to jointly drive the better development of the revenue end in 2022. Through price adjustment, business model optimization and cost control, it is expected to drive the profit margin back to the normal level. It is estimated that the total operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.2 billion yuan, 12.1 billion yuan and 14.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, 17.9% and 17.1% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 135 million yuan, 1439 million yuan and 1.686 billion yuan respectively. At present (2022 / 03 / 04), the corresponding share price of PE in 2022 is 13.6x, which is lower than the PE valuation level of the industry average of about 17.7x. It is expected that the improvement of operation will bring about the rise of the valuation center, "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk factors: the effect of reform is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks
