\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
The position of the core main business is stable, and the new energy and led businesses are gradually driving into the fast lane, maintaining the "buy" rating
The leading position of the two core main businesses is stable. As the company's key sectors, new energy and LED are expected to gradually drive into the fast lane under the positive factors of industry growth dividend + company channel, supply chain and so on. Considering that the raw materials in 2021q4 are still at a high level, we lowered the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 20212023 will be RMB 2.902/34.474013 billion (the original value is RMB 2.974/35.814232 billion), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 4.83/5.73/6.68, and the current share price will be 29.8/25.0/21.5 times that of PE respectively. Considering that the core main business is expected to maintain stable growth, new energy The scale growth of LED business is expected to accelerate and maintain the "buy" rating.
It is expected to maintain the steady growth of core business under the condition of deepening + upgrading of core business
As a fast-moving consumer category with rigid demand, the converter is less affected by external factors, and the demand for natural renewal is stable. It is expected to maintain a stable growth of high single digits in the future. In terms of wall opening, due to strong installation attributes and real estate relevance, the growth rate fluctuates greatly. For the company, product intelligent upgrading and force sinking market + b-end market are the two key points for steady growth. The intelligent upgrading of the first industry is the development trend of the industry. Secondly, the sinking market and b-end market are scattered, and there is still much room for expansion. From the product side, the company has made efforts in smart switches, smart sockets and other categories. From the channel side, the company's b-end business has expanded rapidly, and plans to gradually layout relevant products for the sinking market. It is expected that the wall business under the efforts of products and channel ends will maintain a stable growth of about 15-20%.
The growth dividend of the industry is obvious, and the channel + supply chain empowerment helps the new energy and LED lighting business drive into the fast lane
(1) LED industry first β The growth dividend is obvious. The LED lighting industry has a large space and the pattern has not yet taken shape. After favorable entry, the company has obvious channel advantages. The business focusing on intelligent lighting can bring great growth potential. Secondly, strong synergy + cost reduction capability of supply chain standardization is expected to form its own competitiveness α Growth. The product side company accelerates the layout of intelligent lighting products such as non main lamps. The growth of non main lamps can be expected under the intelligent trend. The strong synergy at the channel side accelerates the introduction of new products into the market. The standardized production capacity at the supply chain side realizes the rapid popularization of new products such as non main lamps. In the medium and short term, the LED lighting business is expected to maintain a high growth of about 30%. (2) In terms of charging pile / gun, the company ushered in rapid development under the new energy outlet, and the company took the lead in seizing the e-commerce market. Rapid layout has formed a first mover advantage. In the future, large-scale and systematic capabilities will be enabled to develop online + offline together.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are less than expected; The risk of industry competition intensifies; Raw materials rose more than expected.
