\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Event:
The company issued a performance express. After preliminary accounting, in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.153 billion yuan, an increase of 871 million yuan over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 56 million yuan, an increase of 552 million yuan over the same period last year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 11 million yuan, an increase of 538 million yuan over the same period last year.
Comments:
The epidemic disturbs the recovery process, and the company's performance is under periodic pressure
With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the hotel industry shows a recovery trend as a whole. The company seizes the recovery opportunity and improves operation efficiency. The company expects to realize a net profit of 55.68 million yuan to its parent company in 21 years and turn around losses; The net profit attributable to the parent company in each quarter of the year was -1.82/2.47/0.60/ - 69 million yuan respectively. The 21q4 epidemic broke out locally. In order to meet the Winter Olympics, the strict control in Beijing had an impact on the company's operation, resulting in a month on month loss in the fourth quarter.
Tuodian achieved its goal at the beginning of the year, and RevPAR recovered to 75% in 19 years
By the end of 2021, the company had 5916 hotels, including 1418 new stores in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 56%, which better completed the store opening plan designated at the beginning of the year. Among them, 184 / 324 / 325 / 585 hotels were newly opened by Q1-Q4 company in 21 years, and the acceleration trend of opening hotels in 21q4 was particularly obvious, with a month on month increase of 80%. In terms of operating data, under the overall recovery trend of the industry, the RevPAR of the company in 21 years increased by 20.2% compared with 20 years and recovered to 75% in 19 years.
The scale of fixed increase landing guarantee was expanded, and the group's management fee income for solving horizontal competition increased
In December 2021, the company's fixed increase of 3 billion yuan was implemented. According to the company's fixed increase plan, 2.1 billion yuan will be used for hotel expansion and decoration upgrading projects, and 900 million yuan will be used to repay loans from financial institutions. After the fixed increase funds are in place, it will provide support for the high-quality development of the company. On the one hand, it will support the expansion, renovation and upgrading of the hotel network. On the other hand, it is expected to reduce financial costs and promote the release of performance. In addition, the solutions for horizontal competition between the company and the group have been implemented, and the first brigade Jianguo has signed a five-year, four-year and 11 month discretionary management agreement with Xinqiao Hotel and Liangmahe building. It is expected that the two will bring the company an incremental management fee income of 7.5 million yuan and 5.17 million yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating
The repeated epidemic has brought uncertainty to the recovery of RevPAR. We reduced the revenue of 21-23 years to 6.152 billion / 8.280 billion / 9.174 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years to 556 million / 976 million / 1.340 billion yuan. After adjustment, the EPS in 22-23 years were 0.53/0.87/1.20 yuan respectively. According to the evaluation value of comparable companies, we gave 40 times PE in 22 years and the target price was 34.80 yuan. Considering the speed and performance flexibility of the company's store expansion, it is rated as "overweight".
Risk tips
Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Risk of intensified industry competition; Store expansion was slower than expected
