\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) released the performance express for 2021: in the whole year of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.153 billion yuan / yoy + 16.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 556769 million yuan / year-on-year loss (a loss of 496 million yuan in 2020); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 109458 million yuan / year-on-year loss (loss of 528 million yuan in 2020), non recurring profit and loss of 447311 million yuan / yoy + 42.03%; 21q4: the company achieved revenue of 1.427 billion yuan / yoy-16.32%, net loss attributable to parent company of 694084 million yuan / year-on-year loss (profit of 590137 million yuan in 2020), net loss attributable to non parent company of 825017 million yuan / year-on-year loss (profit of 452775 million yuan in 2020), and non recurring profit and loss of 156703 million yuan / yoy-4.68%.
Turning losses into profits throughout the year, Q4 is under pressure due to the repeated impact of the epidemic. In the whole year of 2021, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the overall operating results of the company have improved significantly compared with that in 2020, and the RevPAR has increased by 20.2% compared with that in 2020. According to our calculation, the RevPAR in the whole year of 21 reached 119 yuan, about recovering to 74.88% in the same period of 19 years, driving the performance to turn around the loss. From the perspective of 21q4, the epidemic situation in 21q4 China is frequent, especially the spread of the tour group epidemic outbreak in late October to more than 10 provinces, resulting in the significant strengthening of travel control across the country, including the further upgrading of the fuse policy for inter provincial travel at the end of October, which suppresses the occupancy rate of China’s hotel industry. The overall proportion of the company’s stores in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is relatively high, which is more affected by the epidemic prevention control.
Affected by the repeated epidemic / Winter Olympics / two sessions in Q1 of 22, the overall operation is expected to remain under pressure. In the medium and long term, with the vaccination / promotion of specific drugs / warming climate, the demand of the hotel industry is expected to recover, driving the repair of the company’s operation / performance.
Light joining forces will help achieve the goal of expanding stores in 2021. In the face of the epidemic, the company made great efforts to grow and opened stores against the trend. In 2021, 1418 stores were opened, realizing the goal of opening 14001600 stores throughout the year. By the end of 2021, the number of hotels in the company had reached 5916, an increase of 20.9% over the end of the previous year; In the whole year, 1021 and 464 were opened in 21q4, both reaching the highest level in history; 397 stores closed (464 stores closed in 2020); As of 21q3, there were 1838 pipeline hotels, and the reserve of subsequent expansion stores was sufficient. Light franchise hotels (including cloud series and Huayi) are the most important pillars of current store expansion. The company realizes brand output / online diversion / management empowerment for franchise hotels through non-standard mode / CRS system / digital system / operation guidance. China’s single hotel has a large scale and a broad market. It is expected that the light franchise model will still constitute an important support for the company’s subsequent opening of stores.
Fixed increase and landing to supplement “ammunition” and integrate with the group’s peers for a long-term layout. In December 21, the company’s fixed increase of 3 billion yuan was implemented, of which 2.1 billion yuan will be used for hotel expansion and decoration upgrading projects, and 900 million yuan will be used to repay loans from financial institutions; Upgrade and transform direct stores to build strength in the post epidemic era and promote the release of performance. In addition, the company will solve the problem of horizontal competition with the group in 22 years: the hotel management contract of Xinqiao hotel / Liangmahe building has been signed on January 29. It is expected that the high-end hotel brand management business of Nuojin Hotel and other groups will also be delivered this year, enriching the high-end brand portfolio of the company and increasing the income of hotel management fee.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of the epidemic in early 22, we lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 790 / 1.26 billion yuan in 22 / 23, and the corresponding PE will be 39x / 25X respectively. In the medium and long term, the supply of the hotel industry has been significantly cleared due to covid-19 epidemic, and a new business cycle is expected to start with the recovery of demand Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) direct sales account for a relatively high proportion, and the performance flexibility is stronger in the upward cycle; We are optimistic that the company will continue to expand stores against the trend, achieve high growth and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, and the expansion of stores is lower than expected
