\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 68 Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) )
In 2021, the company made a profit of 283 million yuan, which is in the middle of the performance forecast. The company achieved a revenue of 1.861 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 92%; Corresponding to Q4, the revenue was 546 million yuan, an increase of 13% month on month. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 283 million, with a year-on-year increase of 133%; Corresponding to Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, down 30% month on month; The annual profit is close to the median value of the performance forecast. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 37.80%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.16pct, and the net profit margin was 15.33%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.83pct. The improvement of profitability in the whole year was mainly due to the improvement of customer structure and capacity utilization. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 company was 42.14%, up 4.08pct month on month; The net interest rate was 12.31%, down 8.89pct month on month. The decline in net interest rate was due to the sharp rise in R & D expenses, amortization of equity incentives, impairment, scrapping of non current assets and other factors.
The product and customer structure improved, and the profitability of the company increased rapidly. In 2021, the company's Changzhou Xingyuan 360 million flat wet diaphragm project has been completed and supplied to large customers in batches. We estimate that the diaphragm capacity of the company is expected to reach 1.6 billion square meters by the end of 2021, driven by capacity expansion. In 2021, the company's diaphragm shipment volume was 1.219 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 74%. In 2021, the company had in-depth cooperation with overseas customers LG new energy, Samsung, northvolt and Murata, and the customer structure improved significantly. The company's super coating factory will realize mass supply in 2021, and the delivery volume of coating film will increase steadily. In 2021, the non net profit of diaphragm single flat deduction of the company reached 0.24 yuan, an increase of 56% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, the company will accelerate the construction of bases in Changzhou, Sweden and Nantong, and the coating capacity is expected to be released rapidly. It has signed long orders with LG new energy and northvolt. The proportion of high-profit coating shipments and the increase of overseas supplies are expected to increase profits.
In the future, the supply and demand of the industry will be tight, and the release of the company's production capacity will be promoted in an orderly manner. According to the current production expansion rhythm of mainstream diaphragm plants and the limited capacity of diaphragm equipment manufacturers, it is expected that the diaphragm industry will continue to maintain a tight supply for 2-3 years. The company deeply bound the production capacity of Bruckner equipment and consolidated the foundation for production expansion. We expect that the company's production capacity is expected to reach 3 / 4.5 billion square meters in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and expand production rapidly to increase market share.
Risk warning: the production and sales of electric vehicles are not as expected; The production progress is less than expected; The cost drop was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "overweight" rating. With the continuous volume of wet coating and coating and the increase in the proportion of overseas customers, the profitability of the company is expected to improve steadily. Based on the marginal improvement of profitability brought about by the improvement of the company's customers and product structure, we raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 649 / 1108 / 1473 million yuan respectively (the original forecast was 579 / 881 million yuan in 2022 / 2023), with a year-on-year growth rate of 129 / 71 / 33% and diluted EPS of 0.84/1.44/1.92 yuan respectively, The current share price corresponding to PE is 40 / 23 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating
