\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
The company announced the 2021 performance express on March 4, 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 244 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.82%, and the first year of listing was brilliant. According to this calculation, the company achieved an operating revenue of 415 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 14.96%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 67 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 63 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%.
The product matrix is gradually enriched, and the nationwide distribution of production capacity is gradually released. Large single product sweet milk accounts for about 90% of the company’s revenue. The 280ml series of new products “fruit and vegetable yogurt”, “milk coffee” and “coconut milk” launched in 2021 have been sold well, although they have not been launched in all channels. It is expected that with the completion of omni-channel marketing during the year, there may be better performance in 2022; At the same time, in 2022, the company will launch a number of new products to gradually enrich product tastes and product forms, and will also contribute to the increment of revenue. In terms of production capacity, the company’s five major production bases currently have a production capacity of 400000 tons. At the same time, the company has 80000 tons of phase II projects under construction in Longyou, Zhejiang and Shanggao, Jiangxi, and Yunnan Qujing phase II, which will be oriented to the Southeast Asian market in the future. It is estimated that the production capacity may reach Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons after completion in the future.
The cost side raw materials and packaging materials both rose, and the profit side was under pressure at the initial stage of channel expansion. In 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 23.31%, which is lower than the revenue end. It is mainly affected by the rising purchase costs of raw material large package powder, white granulated sugar and packaging PET bottles, pressure conduction and the initial cost investment of channel expansion. The company has locked the consumption of large bags of powder in 2022 in batches before the end of 21. Although the cost is higher than that in 21 years, it is generally controllable. The annual advertising expenses are still concentrated in China Central Television, high-speed railway, airport, station and other places, and the total cost is the same as that in 2021. 2022 is the first year of the company’s nationwide layout. Three categories (10-30 million) and four categories (blank market) have a focus on the cost investment in the initial stage of development, which may have an impact on the profit side.
The expansion of Tetong in mature markets and the sinking of circulation are carried out at the same time, and the Tetong in peripheral markets is supplemented by the inclination of expenses. 2022 is the first year of the company’s nationwide layout, with 90% of the mature markets in East China, central China and southwest China. The future increment comes from the accelerated sinking of distribution channels and the rich expansion of special channels. In addition to the schools, breakfast shops, Internet cafes and convenience stores that have been laid out, the company’s new expansion directions include: vending machines, bakeries, factory and mine canteens, small restaurants (such as barbecue shops, Malatang, dumpling restaurants, large food stalls, etc.) in the city; The peripheral markets in North China, Northeast China, Northwest China and South China account for 10% in total, which are entered by means of special communication first and then circulation, and with a certain inclination of channel costs.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize revenue of 1.47/1.841/2.249 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, a year-on-year increase of + 35.1% / + 25.3% / + 22.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 / 321 / 409 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.8% / + 31.3% / + 27.7%, EPS of 1.13/1.48/1.89 and corresponding PE of 32x / 24x / 19x respectively. Considering that the short-term cost pressure of the company is controllable, the types of special channels are continuously enriched in the medium term, the long-term national layout is continuously promoted, and the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the epidemic affects consumption, industry competition intensifies, and the price of raw materials continues to rise.
