\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Events
Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ) recently released the performance forecast: it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 760 million to RMB 830 million in 2021, while the loss in the same period of last year is eye-catching.
Key investment points
The performance is beautiful, and the profit per ton continues to improve
The company is a high-quality supplier of lithium iron phosphate cathode. The company expects to deduct 730 million yuan to 800 million yuan from non parent in 2021, while it suffered a loss in the same period of last year, and the performance inflection point is clear. The company expects to realize a net profit of 510 million yuan to 580 million yuan of non parent company deduction in 2021q4, with a significant increase of 381% - 448% month on month, with eye-catching performance. We expect that the company's shipments of lithium iron phosphate in 2021 will be about 90000 tons / yoy + 196%, and the corresponding non-profit deduction per ton will be about 8 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 yuan / ton. Among them, the company's shipments in 2021q4 are expected to be about 35000 tons, and the corresponding non-profit deduction per ton will exceed 15000 yuan / ton, showing a significant and continuous improvement trend. It is expected to benefit from the inventory income on the one hand, and the shortage of lithium iron phosphate on the other hand, and the price continues to rise, The production and marketing of the company are booming, and the economies of scale are prominent.
The company continues to strengthen R & D and technology leadership, and is in a leading position in the fields of lithium supplement, lithium ferromanganese and so on. We believe that the company's scale continues to expand, the iterative upgrading of superposition technology, the strong demand for iron and lithium driven by energy storage and electric vehicles, and the company's single ton profit is expected to maintain a high level.
Continuous expansion of production capacity and deep binding with high-quality customers
Benefiting from the rapid development of electric vehicles and energy storage, the company's production capacity is in short supply. By the end of 2021, the company's iron lithium production capacity is about 150000 tons. It is expected that the 180000 tons of production capacity jointly invested by the company with Yiwei and Ningde will be released successively from the middle to the second half of 2022. The company's existing production capacity and planned production capacity reach 770000 tons, distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangdong and other places, with clear long-term planning, Sufficient growth potential. The technology iteration has accelerated. The company has strengthened technology research and development and increased the industrialization of new cathode materials such as ferromanganese lithium. The company's current planned capacity has reached 440000 tons and is expected to be put into large-scale production in 2023. In addition, in terms of lithium supplement, the company currently plans to have a production capacity of 45000 tons, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023. In terms of customers, the company deeply binds Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , and has a joint venture of 80000 tons of iron lithium with Ningde in Yibin and 100000 tons of iron lithium with Yiwei in Yunnan. In addition, the company also supplies Byd Company Limited(002594) and other high-quality customers.
On the whole, the company actively distributes production capacity, speeds up technological iteration and upgrading, strengthens core competitiveness, and establishes in-depth strategic cooperative relations with customers through joint ventures. On the whole, we believe that the company has high-quality production capacity, technology in line with future development trends, strong demand, long-term production capacity will be effectively digested, and shipments will maintain rapid growth.
Deeply cultivate the iron lithium track and actively promote the industrialization of new technologies
With technology as the core, the company deeply cultivates the iron lithium track, optimizes the performance of iron lithium, actively promotes the industrialization of new technologies such as manganese iron lithium and lithium supplement, and deeply covers high-quality application scenarios such as energy storage and electric vehicles. According to xinlune lithium battery, the output of iron lithium in China will be 450000 tons / yoy + 169% in 2021, realizing rapid growth; In terms of competition pattern, the company's market share in 2020 / 2021q1-3 was 19% / 20% respectively, taking the lead.
Overall, the company's track has good growth, clear development path, large proportion of the company's energy storage business and good flexibility. The company's capacity continues to expand, its customers are high-quality, and its technology iteration strengthens its competitiveness. It is expected to continue to benefit from the global energy revolution and highlight its excellent growth.
Profit forecast
Based on the principle of prudence, the impact of additional issuance on performance and share capital will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 800 / 14.5/2.15 billion, EPS will be RMB 9.07/16.36/24.23, and the corresponding PE will be 62 / 34 / 23 times respectively. Based on the company's high-quality track, deep binding of high-quality customers, technical iteration, strengthening of core barriers, and industrial layout in line with future development trends, we are optimistic about the company's medium and long-term upward development opportunities and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; Capacity expansion and digestion are not as expected; The progress of additional issuance was less than expected.
