\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 23 Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) )
Key elements of the report:
On March 7, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on “upholding stability, seeking progress while maintaining stability, and promoting new progress in high-quality development”. Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said to guide coal prices to remain within a reasonable range and improve the price transmission mechanism of coal and electricity.
Key investment points:
The price of coking coal fluctuates, and the company has a high self-sufficiency rate to deal with upstream risks: according to the monitoring data of business society, the average market price of coking coal in February was about 2665 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2555 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 4.13% and increased by 61.54% compared with the same period last year. With the closing of the Winter Olympics, the coking capacity of provinces and cities around Beijing will be gradually released or will bring a new round of demand growth. The introduction of relevant mechanisms of the national development and Reform Commission is expected to provide a more stable business environment for coking enterprises and slow down the impact of coal price fluctuations on the market. The company has a total coal production capacity of 6.3 million tons in Taiyue, Dongyu and Jinfu coal mines in Fenxi. The existing coal resources can ensure the self-sufficiency rate of more than 63% of the downstream coking demand of the company in the next three years, and can better cope with the impact of coking coal price rise.
The capacity of coking business continues to expand, and the increase of volume and price drives the growth of the company’s performance: after Huasheng Chemical replaced the capacity and longhui withdrew from the coking business at the end of 2020, the company’s coking capacity reached 715 tons / year. In addition, the 5 million tons / year coking project under construction in Inner Mongolia phase I is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22 years, and the capacity after putting into operation will reach 1215 tons / year, which is 1.7 times the capacity in 21 years. The capacity growth expectation is clear. The company released a performance forecast in January 2022, which disclosed that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.5-3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 259.54-331.44%, corresponding to EPS of 0.59-0.70. The coke price remained high in 21 years, and the volume and price rose together, driving the growth of the company’s performance.
The Winter Olympics hydrogen energy has become China’s business card, and the new business is expected to usher in a growth inflection point: the application of hydrogen energy in the fields of Winter Olympics torch, bus and urban public transportation has been shown on the international stage, and hydrogen energy has become China’s new business card. At present, the Guangdong region that the company focuses on has officially become one of the first batch of hydrogen energy demonstration urban agglomerations in China. The company arranges the hydrogen energy sector from the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production – hydrogenation station – membrane electrode – electric reactor – complete vehicle, and builds hydrogen energy industrial parks in Qingdao, Jiaxing, Foshan, Guangzhou, Yunfu and other cities, hoping to give full play to the synergy advantages of the whole chain layout.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 150.11/183.92/22.424 billion respectively, the net profit will be RMB 27.70/33.64/4.640 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.68/0.79/1.09/share respectively. Maintain the “overweight” rating in combination with the fundamentals of the company’s coking and hydrogen energy business.
Risk factors: falling coke price; The sales volume of Feichi car is lower than expected; The order quantity of membrane electrode is less than
