\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
With the unique personality of "Five ghosts", thousands of sails will end in a bright future Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) is named after master Huang Yongyu, who is a "painting genius". It takes the meaning of ghosts and talents. It represents detachment from freedom, unwilling to mediocrity, unusual, Maverick and strong personal characteristics. The "ghost" of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) is mainly reflected in five aspects: geographical environment, technology, flavor, culture and packaging design. From the perspective of historical review, the development of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) in the review, we found that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) suffered repeated setbacks due to frequent changes of management, lack of continuity of policies and lack of consistency. The plasticizer storm in 2015 has passed, COFCO has stabilized its operation and actively improved in many aspects, and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) gradually began to embark on a new period of development.
Three questions, internal reference, success attribution and growth space. Reasons for the success of internal reference: 1) quality first and culture based. The storage time of internal ginseng is 8 years, and the production process also has the gene of high-end wine. At the same time, circle marketing + cultural empowerment drive internal ginseng to be based on high-end. 2) Set up an internal sales company to release the vitality of the system. The company established an internal sales company on December 26, 2018. The sales company model is deeply bound to dealers, which makes the cost investment more flexible and the channel profit higher, so as to quickly mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers. At the same time, the company is also strengthening the construction of specialty stores, promoting cultural marketing and circle marketing, and the process of nationalization is accelerating. Future space of internal ginseng: we expect that the high-end wine market in the province is expected to maintain the same growth rate as the per capita GDP. It is expected that the scale of high-end wine will be about 9 billion yuan by 2025. With the continuous deep cultivation of internal ginseng in the province, the market share is expected to increase to about 10-15%. It is expected that the sales scale of internal ginseng in the province is expected to reach about 2 billion in 2025. We expect the growth rate outside the province to be faster than that inside the province. The compound growth rate is expected to reach 30% in the next five years, and the proportion outside the province is expected to reach more than 60%.
Drunkard channel first, line layer empowerment, remote revival Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) has a national gene, pricing medium and high-end to undertake consumption upgrading dividends. At present, the company defines the main products, focuses on creating large single products, and mainly promotes products such as red altar, transparent clothing and inheritance version. At the same time, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) as a medium and high-grade product, the company has boosted the channel profit margin and product thrust through product replacement. At present, the channel thrust of drunkard series has increased significantly and the dealer team has expanded significantly. At the same time, in terms of circle marketing, drunkard series continues the internal participation method, promotes the influence of circle through fuyuhui activities and boosts the brand value, In 2020, the Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) brand value was 39.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company participates in the drunkard two wheel drive and the performance elasticity is released rapidly. It is estimated that the revenue in 202123 will be 33.5/46.0/6.03 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 83.5% / 37.4% / 31.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 will be 930/13.4/1.82 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 90.5% / 43.2% / 36.3%, and the corresponding PE will be 57 / 40 / 29 times respectively, Refer to the average value of the 202123 year valuation of comparable high-end Baijiu 57/40/29 times, considering that the company's growth is better than comparable companies, giving the company target price of 225 yuan target price, corresponding to 40 times PE in 2023, the first coverage to buy "rating".
Risk tips: increased competition within the province, less than expected expansion outside the province, macroeconomic downturn and repeated epidemic risks.
