\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 669 Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) )
the difference between Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and traditional construction central enterprises in asset characteristics stems from more concessions and power assets
1) the operation profitability of power assets is better, and the quality of new energy assets is better. The company's power assets are mainly in fixed assets (at the end of 20fy, the company's total power assets were 886.5 billion, with a holding installed capacity of 16.1gw, of which wind power / hydropower / thermal power accounted for about 40% / 40% / 20%). With the projects entering the operation period and the continuous optimization of the structure, the profitability of the business has been steadily improved. The total profit of 20fy accounts for more than 15% of the revenue, yoy + 3PCT. The gross profit margin of new energy power assets of 21h1 power construction is 59.0%, which is close to the level of comparable companies. Compared with the data of professional power operation enterprises, it is speculated that the overall quality of new energy assets of the company is better.
2) it is estimated that the intangible assets of the company are mainly highway concessions, and it is speculated that the profitability has improved steadily in recent years. Assuming that the capital ratio is 25%, we calculate that the net assets of expressway concession of 20fy company is 47.7 billion. 20fy's revenue from other businesses (we expect the franchise to contribute to the main performance) is 31 billion yuan (excluding segment offset, the same below), yoy + 15.4%, which has continued a good growth rhythm in recent years; The gross profit margin was 13.6%, yoy was - 2.2pct, and the proportion of total profit in revenue increased significantly by 2.6pct to 6.2%. In recent years, the profitability has gradually improved. 20fy's total profit accounted for about 12%, with an increase of 4.4pct.
The development of new energy power assets may be accelerated, and the value of expressway concession also needs to be paid attention to
1) during the "14th five year plan" period, we will pay attention to the layout of new energy power assets and speed up their development. At the end of 21h1, the company's new energy will be put into operation with an installed capacity of 7.8gw, and it is planned to increase the installed capacity of Fengguang by 30-48.5gw at the end of the 14th five year plan. According to neutral assumption, 2 / 4 / 14 / 14 / 6Gw of new installed capacity is expected to be added in 21-25 years, with scenery accounting for 60% and 40% respectively. According to incomplete statistics, the company signed and approved the construction of photovoltaic projects exceeding 7gw and wind power exceeding 2gw in 21 and early 22; In addition, the total installed capacity of the company in 22 years is expected to be 7.5GW, yoy + 50%. We believe that the company's completion of the installation goal is supported. We estimate that the capital expenditure of the company corresponding to the new new energy installed capacity in 21-25 years is 22 / 43 / 146 / 144 / 6.1 billion respectively, the net profit of new energy power operation business is 8 / 12 / 22 / 39 / 5.2 billion respectively, and the proportion with the net profit in 20 years is 7% / 9% / 18% / 31% / 41% respectively. As the support of the company's transformation, the development prospect of power assets deserves attention.
2) the value of expressway concession is also worthy of attention. The neutral assumption predicts that the company's expressway franchise net assets will be 63.1 billion at the end of 22fy, and REITs or marginal acceleration will contribute to the discovery of Expressway Asset value. With reference to the 0.8x 22-year target Pb given by professional Expressway operators, the corresponding franchise target market value is 50.5 billion, which has a certain revaluation space compared with the overall PE packaging valuation model.
The segment valuation gives the company a 22-year target market value of 171 billion and maintains the "buy" rating
We maintain the previous performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is 8.8/101/11.8 billion, yoy respectively 10.6% / 14.8% / 16.8%; Among them, power investment and operation business is RMB 2.4 billion / 2.9 billion / 3.5 billion, other businesses (mainly Expressway concessions) are RMB 8.0 billion / 1.3 billion, and engineering and other businesses are RMB 5.6 billion / 6.2 billion / 7.1 billion. Referring to the situation of comparable companies, 1) give the 22-year target PE 20x of power investment and operation business, corresponding to the target market value of 58.6 billion; 2) The target Pb of other businesses for 22 years is 0.8x (the estimated net assets of expressway concession in 22 years are 63.1 billion), corresponding to the target market value of 50.5 billion; 3) The 22-year target PE of engineering and other businesses is 10x, corresponding to the target market value of 62 billion; The segment valuation gives the company an overall target market value of 171 billion yuan in 22 years, corresponding to the overall PE of 16.9x in 22 years. The target price is raised to 11.18 yuan accordingly to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: strategy execution is weaker than expected, power and infrastructure investment is lower than expected, impairment risk, asset integration rhythm is lower than expected, and the promotion rhythm and strength of REITs policy are lower than expected
