\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 91 Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) )
Key investment points:
The company takes the contract production of health products as its core business, and is committed to providing product solutions, product filing and OEM production services to brands and channels. Under the contract production mode, the enterprise takes serving the enterprise's key customers as the core, and key customer stickiness is one of the company's core competitiveness.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the export volume of the company remained the second in the industry from 2015 to 2018. The contribution of domestic and foreign markets to the company's sales is basically maintained at 60% to 40%. After two years of epidemic, we believe that the core customers under the production OEM mode are more stable and the anti risk ability of enterprise operation is stronger.
At present, the company's capacity under construction includes an annual output of 5960 tons of powder, 2.6 billion pieces of soft candy and 282 million bags of drinks. The above proposed increased capacity belongs to the phase II project of Ma'anshan production base and is expected to be fully put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the company's production capacity planning, the company's production capacity of fudge, beverage and powder is expected to double after 2023.
With the scale expansion, the scale benefit of the company will be more prominent, and the profit will rise with the benefit; Secondly, when the production scale is large enough, the bargaining power of the company for both upstream and downstream will be enhanced, the cost can be pressed lower, and there is no room for product price increase. The sales contribution of new dosage forms is gradually increasing, which is expected to improve the company's product structure and enhance the overall profitability.
We predict that the operating revenue of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 2.74 billion yuan, 3.303 billion yuan and 3.73 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.58%, 20.55% and 12.92% respectively; EPS was 2.22 yuan, 2.83 yuan and 3.33 yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.63%, 27.15% and 17.86% respectively. Referring to the company's closing price of 35.42 yuan / share on March 2, 2022, the corresponding P / E ratios are 15.94 times, 12.53 times and 10.63 times respectively. Compared with the company's potential sales and performance growth, the company's secondary market valuation is currently low. For the first time, we will give the company an "overweight" rating based on the performance forecast.
Risk tip: the company's export business accounts for a large proportion, so its performance is relatively affected by the international geopolitical crisis; The company's products are optional consumption. At present, the consumption of Chinese residents is weak, and a long recovery period is needed in the future. Weak consumption is not conducive to the company's expansion strategy; The prices of major commodities and logistics in the world remain high. It is expected that the cost of manufacturing industry will remain high in 2022, which does not rule out the possibility of further weakening profits.
