\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event:
The company released the production and sales report of February 2022: the output of new energy vehicles in that month was 89136, with a total of 180872 in this year, a year-on-year increase of 430%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 88283, with a total of 181451 this year, a year-on-year increase of 494.28%; The total installed capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries of new energy vehicles is about 4.615gwh, and the cumulative installed capacity this year is about 9.3853gwh.
Key investment points:
The price rise is difficult to curb the strong demand, and the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is only - 5.9% month on month, showing stronger toughness. In a single month, the company sold 90268 passenger cars in February, up + 336.2% year-on-year and slightly - 5.2% month on month; Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 87473, with a year-on-year increase of 764.1%, a month on month increase of - 5.9%, and the penetration rate of new energy was 96.9%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 180399, a year-on-year increase of 501.5%, and the new energy penetration rate of passenger vehicles was 97.3%, an increase of 49.5pcts compared with the same period last year. On January 21, 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile officially released the adjustment of the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com from February 1, with an increase range of 1 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan, involving all its new energy models. The sales volume of the company's new energy passenger vehicles in February was only - 5.9% month on month, showing stronger market toughness than its peers and less affected by the price rise, which is in line with our previous expectations, which fully reflects the company's strong product power and brand influence. In contrast, the sales volume of new forces in February was generally about - 40% month on month, with Xiaopeng - 51.8%, Weilai - 36.5%, ideal - 31.4% and Nezha - 35.4%.
In February, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid models was - 4.8% month on month. The price of raw materials upstream of the battery soared, amplifying the cost performance advantage of plug-in hybrid models. The sales volume of the company's new energy vehicles was - 451.73% year-on-year, compared with that of the company's new energy vehicles in February; There were 44300 DM-I models, with a year-on-year increase of + 1836% and a month on month increase of - 4.8%, which also reflected the strong terminal demand of the company's hybrid products. As the company's fourth generation PHEV technology, DMI has outstanding product power and significantly lower price than the previous generation of DM models. Compared with the same level of fuel and hybrid competitive models, DMI has a very high cost performance, and has become the biggest driving force to promote the growth of the company's automobile sales. In addition, the price of lithium carbonate rose from 53000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 275000 tons at the end of 2022, and reached 495000 tons on March 4, 2022. The sharp rise in the price of upstream materials of batteries will put greater pressure on the cost of pure electric vehicles than hybrid models. It is expected that the terminal discount of pure electric vehicles will be narrowed step by step, and the possibility and range of price increase will be greater, The cost performance advantage of hybrid models will be further amplified. In 2022, the company will launch a number of new hybrid models, including Dynasty network models such as Han DM-I and Ocean network models such as destroyer 05, which will promote the continuous and rapid growth of the sales volume of the company's hybrid products.
Wang Chaowang continues to maintain excellent sales performance, and the cumulative sales of Han EV has exceeded 180000. In February 2022, the sales volume of Han series models was 9290, of which Han EV increased by 118.1% year-on-year. Since its listing in 2020, the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 180000; The sales volume of Tang series models was 10426, of which the new generation Tang DM increased by 1143.9% year-on-year; The sales volume of song series models was 24534, of which song EV increased by 5866.1% year-on-year; The sales volume of Qin series models was 24503, of which Qin plusev increased by 16.6% month on month; The sales volume of Yuan series models was 8953, with a year-on-year increase of 2380% for the whole series; Dolphins sold 8565 vehicles and continued to maintain high popularity. The launch and listing of many new models in 2022 will continue to enrich the company's product matrix of new energy vehicles and help the company continuously create excellent sales performance in various market segments.
Profit forecast and investment rating give the company a "buy" rating. We are optimistic about the future development of the company. It is estimated that the company will realize main business revenue of 2300, 300.4 and 405.1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47%, 31% and 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.4 billion yuan, 8.1 billion yuan and 12.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3%, 85% and 59%; The corresponding EPS is 1.60, 2.97 and 4.71 yuan.
The risk suggests that the sales growth of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The listing process of new cars is not as expected; The release of high-end brands and mass production progress are less than expected; The implementation progress of the company's production capacity is less than expected; The external supply of power battery is not as expected.
