\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Event:
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) released the performance express for 2021: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 556769 million yuan in 2021 (a loss of 496 million yuan in 2020), an increase of 552 million yuan over the same period of the previous year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 109458 million yuan (a loss of 527 million yuan in 2020), an increase of 538 million yuan over the same period of last year. The expected net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 694084 million yuan (59.01 million yuan in 2020q4), a decrease of 128 million yuan compared with 2020q4; Deduct the net profit loss not attributable to the parent company of 825017 million yuan (45.28 million yuan in 2020q4), a decrease of 128 million yuan compared with 2020q4.
Key investment points:
The annual performance turned losses into profits, and the impact of Q4 epidemic was temporarily under pressure. In 2021, the epidemic situation improved as a whole, and the recovery trend of the hotel industry was obvious. The company seized the opportunity of industry recovery, strengthened management, reduced costs and increased efficiency. In 2021, the performance improved significantly, turned losses into profits, and RevPAR increased by 20.2% compared with 2020. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter, affected by the repeated epidemics all over the country, the normal operation of the industry was greatly impacted. The prevention and control policies in North China, the advantageous region of the company, were stricter, the entry and exit of personnel in and out of Beijing were limited, and large-scale activities were “unnecessary”. We judged that the business environment of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was more severe, with a significant decline compared with 2021q3, It was the main reason for the loss in the fourth quarter.
Some expenses will be concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2021, further squeezing the profit space. The company’s expenses in the fourth quarter of previous years were higher than those in other quarters. The total sales expenses and management expenses in 2020q4 were 309 million yuan, 68 / 147 / 41 million yuan higher than q1-q3, and the total sales expenses and management expenses in 2019q4 were 1.689 billion yuan, 104 / 173 / 67 million yuan higher than q1-q3. Under the pressure of operation, the cost pressure of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 is greater, further squeezing the profit space.
Firmly expand against the market, press the line and complete the goal of opening stores. 1) In 2021, 1418 new stores were opened, the scale of which was the highest in history, and the goal of opening 14001600 new stores in 2021 was achieved. The opening speed was 28.97% / year-on-year + 8.54 PCT. 397 stores were closed throughout the year, down 67 from 2020; 2) The net number of stores opened throughout the year was 1021, an increase of 576 compared with 2020. By the end of 2021, there were 5916 stores in stock, with a growth rate of + 20.86% / year-on-year + 10.86 PCT; 3) In the fourth quarter of 2021, 585 new stores were opened, the opening speed was 11.95% / year-on-year + 3.84 PCT, 124 stores were closed, 425 fewer than the same period in 2020, 461 stores were net opened, 649 more than the same period in 2020; 4) At the end of 2021, the company had more than 1600 stores in reserve / year-on-year + 31.26%. The opening of stores in 2022 is expected to be higher than that in 2021.
Investment suggestion: as an industry leader, the company has steadily promoted the store expansion plan under the epidemic, and the scale expansion has been accelerated again. In the short term, due to the impact of the epidemic, the profit is under pressure, but with the gradual calm of the epidemic, the industry will enter the boom stage of simultaneous rise in volume and price after the supply is cleared, and the company is expected to fully release the performance flexibility. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize an operating revenue of RMB 6.153/70.42/7.714 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 56 / 8.33/1.478 billion, corresponding to 510.10/34.47/19.44 XPE. Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic has repeatedly affected travel, the speed of expanding stores is lower than expected, the industry competition is intensified, macroeconomic fluctuations and the improvement of management efficiency are lower than expected.
