\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Event:
On March 3, 2022, the company released the production and sales report of February 2022: the overall sales volume of the company was 322000, a year-on-year increase of + 30.6%; SAIC Volkswagen sold 91000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 79.4%; SAIC has 64000 passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of + 114.7%; 45000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 48.4%; 56000 vehicles were exported overseas, a year-on-year increase of + 69.3%.
Key investment points:
In February, the company’s sales volume was + 31% year-on-year, and the Volkswagen recovery sales volume was + 79.4% year-on-year. In February 2022, the company sold 322000 complete vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.6% and a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 19.7%; SAIC Volkswagen sold 91000 vehicles in batches, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.4%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 61.9% from January to February. The main reasons for the significant year-on-year increase are as follows: ① dealers replenish inventory; ② Affected by the “China Insurance Research Event” in 2021, it gradually recovered. In January, Passat’s sales volume was 14668, a year-on-year increase of + 698%, which was higher than the sales volume of each month in 2021, with a significant upward trend. SAIC sold 64000 passenger cars in batches, with a year-on-year increase of + 113.4%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 51.3% from January to February, of which the sales of rx5, MG5 and other main models exceeded 10000. SAIC Maxus sold nearly 13000 vehicles in batches, a year-on-year increase of + 30.9%; SAIC GM sold 76000 vehicles in batches, a year-on-year increase of – 0.8%; SAIC GM Wuling sold 66000 vehicles in batches, a year-on-year increase of + 1%. We believe that in an environment where the global chip shortage is still severe, SAIC Volkswagen can still achieve a rapid recovery, which reflects the excellent business ability of SAIC Volkswagen, which will further improve the overall sales volume of the company.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 45000, a year-on-year increase of 48.4%. In February 2022, the company’s sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 45000, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.4%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 33.5% from January to February. In addition to the Hongguang Mini EV and other electric small and micro models under the Wuling brand of SAIC General Motors, the sales volume of SAIC passenger cars and new energy vehicles in that month exceeded 9000, and the sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen new energy vehicles exceeded 6300, ranking first among the joint venture brands in China. In addition, the first mass production model L7 of Zhiji automobile, an independent high-end new energy brand, will be delivered soon, which will fully show the company’s achievements in the field of intelligent vehicles and promote the company’s independent brand to accelerate upward.
Exports increased by 69.3% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume of independent brands in Europe is expected to reach 120000. In February, the company sold 56000 vehicles overseas, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.3%, of which the sales of Mg brand in Europe doubled. With a number of new energy heavyweight products represented by pure electric vehicle mg EH32 successively landing in Europe, the annual sales volume of SAIC’s independent brand in Europe is expected to reach 120000.
Profit forecast and investment rating predict that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 815.4 billion yuan, 868.8 billion yuan and 907.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 7% and 4% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 26.4 billion yuan, 30.6 billion yuan and 34.8 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 226 million yuan, 262 million yuan and 298 million yuan respectively. Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
The risk indicates that the shortage of automobile chips is not alleviated as expected; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; Overseas export sales are less than expected; The recovery of sales volume of joint venture brands is less than expected; The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
