\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 35 Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) )
Negative electrode industry trend: integration is the general trend, and the core of integration is graphitization
In the past 21 years, the market share of some enterprises with high graphitization self supply rate has increased significantly. The concentration of negative electrode industry is not high, and the CR3 / Cr5 in 20 years is 56% / 77%, lower than that of diaphragm and electrolyte. In the 21st year, the industry demand broke out, the graphitization capacity was tight, and the global market share of negative electrode plants with high graphitization self supply rate increased significantly. For example, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) increased from 4.8% in the 20th year to 7% in the 21st year.
Future power & energy storage is the main battlefield of the negative pole, the core competitive factor is cost, and the key to cost competition is integration. The negative electrode process is long, involving crushing, granulation, graphitization, carbonization and screening. In earlier years, graphitization and other processes were mostly outsourced. Under the pressure of cost reduction, outsourcing processes such as integrated fossil inking (the cost accounts for about 42%) will become a trend.
Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) : from magnetoelectric equipment to lithium negative electrode, epitaxial M & A finally forms a negative star
The company's traditional business is magnetoelectric equipment, and the industry is in a mature development stage. The company is firmly at the leading position in the industry (we believe that the market share can still exceed 60%), and the gross profit margin for many years is stable at 40% +. The magnetoelectric market is stable and profitable, but the growth is limited. In order to seek development, the company has gradually entered the lithium battery cathode industry through mergers and acquisitions, and the operation is in good condition.
Enter the negative field through mergers and acquisitions. In 2016, the company acquired 976547% equity of Hunan Xingcheng graphite, a negative electrode company, 100% equity of Guizhou grete new materials, a graphitization company, and 37.5% equity of Jineng new materials, a graphitization company.
The negative electrode business has gradually become the main force of revenue, and the multi-year gross profit margin has been maintained at 30% +. The company's 18-21q1-3 negative electrode business revenue was RMB 420 million, RMB 700 million, RMB 740 million and RMB 1.19 billion respectively, and the gross profit margin was 34.8%, 38.9%, 34.7% and 30.7%. The proportion of negative pole revenue increased from 56% in 17 years to 86% in 21q1-3.
Core focus: accelerating the release of integrated production capacity + binding key customers, and increasing both volume and profit
The release of integrated production capacity was accelerated, and the proportion of graphitized self supply was gradually increased. We expect the company's total effective negative capacity to reach 120000 tons and 260000 tons in 22-23 years, and the equity capacity to reach 120000 tons and 210000 tons. The total effective capacity of graphitization is 720 Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 00 tons, the effective equity capacity is 60 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 000 tons, and the self supply proportion of effective equity is 49% and 69% (41% in 21 years).
Negative pole products have strong power, deeply bound to China's first-line power battery factory + start supply ski, and there is a high possibility of capacity conversion into shipment. The company's artificial graphite has excellent performance in specific capacity, compaction density and other indicators. Its main customers include Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Xingheng power supply, etc. ski has been supplied in batches overseas, and it plans to jointly expand the production of 100000 tons with Ningde and Yiwei respectively.
We expect the net profit per ton to increase to RMB 60000 in 22 years (0.5 in 21 years). Under the neutral unit price expectation in 23 years, the net profit per ton will be RMB 6300. The graphitization price is currently at an all-time high. We expect it to fall in 23 years, and the coke price is lower than the historical center. It is expected to remain stable in 23 years. The negative electrode price rose to 35000 yuan / ton in 22 years, and the sad / medium / optimistic expectation in 23 years is 3.0/3.132000 yuan / ton.
We expect that the company will ship 120000 to 210000 tons of negative electrodes in 22 and 23 years, with a net profit of RMB 60 and 6300 per ton, a profit of RMB 50 and 60 million contributed by magnetoelectric business, and a net profit of RMB 800 and 1.4 billion attributable to the parent company. Considering that the performance is expected to increase significantly in the next two years, combined with peer valuation, we give the company a valuation of 35x in 22 years, with a corresponding market value of RMB 28 billion and a corresponding stock price of RMB 43.6, For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the price fluctuation risk of negative electrode products, the release of the company's production capacity is less than expected, the increase of graphitization self supply rate is less than expected, and the calculation is subjective
