\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 603 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) )
The policy of traditional Chinese medicine is favorable and the market scale is huge
Since 2016, China has issued relevant favorable policies for traditional Chinese medicine every year, including promoting the standardization of upstream medicinal materials, the construction of traditional Chinese medicine talents, the strengthening of Medical Association, the reduction / acceleration of new drug application and approval, etc. At the same time, the comprehensive revenue and profit of the whole traditional Chinese medicine industry are also increasing year by year, with CAGR of 16% from 2011 to 2020. In terms of subdivided fields, traditional Chinese medicine includes proprietary Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, decoction pieces of traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine injections, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, etc. as the largest category in China's traditional Chinese medicine market, the market scale of proprietary Chinese medicine is expected to reach 787.93 billion yuan in 2025.
The three business segments have built core product groups, and performance growth and new drug endurance coexist
The company has actively arranged multiple industries and built a pattern of coordinated development of patented traditional Chinese medicine, chemical and crude drugs and health industries. Patented Chinese medicine has 13 patent medicines covering cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes, cancer, neurological and other major diseases. (1) Tongxinluo capsule, Shensong Yangxin capsule and Qiliqiangxin capsule, three innovative traditional Chinese medicines in the field of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, have been included in the catalogue of class a medical insurance and basic drugs, contributing about half of the company's performance. With the help of good brand awareness and marketing optimization, it is expected that 20212023cagr will exceed 20%. (2) Respiratory drugs include Lianhua Qingwen capsule and Lianhua Qingke tablet, which are in the forefront of the market share of traditional Chinese medicine cold drugs in and out of the hospital. In addition, Lianhua Qingwen products sold more than 4 billion yuan in 2020, becoming a large single product for epidemic treatment, which has greatly improved the brand strength of the company. It is estimated that the CAGR from 2021 to 2023 will exceed 15%. (3) The continuous clinical development of many other patented traditional Chinese medicine and chemobiological drugs, the superposition of existing performance and the listing of new drugs will bring longer endurance. (4) Epidemic related and general health industries seek overseas markets to provide additional growth for the company's performance.
The theoretical system of "syndrome treatment of collateral diseases" to build the core competitive barrier of scientific research
The systematic theoretical system of collateral disease is divided into three parts: collateral disease, chorology and Qi collateral. It is a three-dimensional network system, which is discussed and studied from the perspective of time, space and functional consistency. At the same time, the company follows the discipline law of traditional Chinese medicine, organically combines "theory + clinical + new drugs", and comprehensively creates a new drug R & D system combining component traditional Chinese medicine, compound traditional Chinese medicine and monomer traditional Chinese medicine. Under the leadership of academicians, the company's R & D investment and the number of R & D personnel are increasing year by year. With returning experts, foreign experts, doctors, masters and other high-level talents as the R & D backbone, the company adheres to scientific and technological innovation and promotes the development of enterprises. In the follow-up, many innovative traditional Chinese medicines and innovative crude drugs have entered the clinic and been approved for listing, with promising prospects.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give a "buy" rating
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.245 billion yuan, 12.270 billion yuan and 14.717 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.66%, 19.77% and 19.94% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.342 billion yuan, 1.612 billion yuan and 1.953 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.12%, 20.13% and 21.16%, and the corresponding PE will be 32.73x/27.25x/22.49x, We are optimistic about the company's existing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular traditional Chinese medicine, respiratory traditional Chinese medicine, other traditional Chinese medicine, chemical and biological medicine and health industry products with the help of good brand strength and clinical curative effect. At the same time, it is also optimistic about the scientific research barrier created by the company with the theoretical system of "syndrome treatment of collateral diseases". The gradual realization of the company's follow-up innovative traditional Chinese medicine and chemical and biological drugs will further improve the valuation. We covered for the first time and gave the company a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk; Product R & D risk; Uncertainty of drug sales, etc
