\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 73 Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) )
After more than 40 years of deep cultivation of eye medicine track, it has become the leader of Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) innovation
The listed products cover 10 sub categories of ophthalmic drugs, and 7 main products occupy an absolute sales advantage in the drugs with the same common name; Heavy product 0.05% cyclosporine eye drops is the only cyclosporine drug approved for the treatment of dry eye in China. The pipeline under research has a comprehensive layout, with 22 R & D projects covering dry eye, myopia, conjunctivitis, macular edema, glaucoma and other diseases; The core product under development, 0.01% atropine eye drops, is expected to become the first low concentration atropine drug for the treatment of myopia in the world. The company has strong product power. In recent years, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have achieved rapid growth, and the growth rate has increased significantly. Its innovation ability and leading R & D progress have helped it become a comprehensive innovative eye medicine leader integrating research, production and marketing.
0.01% atropine eye drops: open up a new blue ocean of myopia drugs, and multiple factors drive the growth momentum in the future
(1) the rate of myopia among children and adolescents in China is rising. The prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents in China has exceeded 60% in 2021. Various national policies such as the implementation plan for comprehensive prevention and control of myopia among children and adolescents stimulate the demand for myopia drugs; (2) 0.01% atropine eye drops can effectively control the diopter and axial growth of myopia, with low incidence of adverse reactions and small rebound effect in the later stage of treatment. It is the most reliable means to delay the progression of myopia; (3) At present, there is no atropine eye drops with myopia in the world, and Xingqi product is the first in China to enter phase III clinical practice; The R & D process is far ahead and the competition pattern is excellent. It is expected to become the first batch of drugs in the world; (4) The early launch and use of hospital preparations will enhance the brand awareness, and the promotion of Internet hospitals will help to increase the penetration of products. It is expected to be approved in 2023. In the first year after listing, it can generate 411 million yuan of revenue for Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) and is expected to reach the peak sales of 3.205 billion yuan.
0.05% cyclosporine eye drops: it is the best choice for the treatment of dry eye disease and the first one approved for listing in China
(1) at present, there are about 220 million patients with dry eye disease in China. The market prospect of dry eye disease is promising. The therapeutic effects of traditional eye drugs such as artificial tear eye and glucocorticoid are limited. Cyclosporine eye drops with dual effects of anti-inflammatory and promoting tear secretion usher in spring; (2) The drug adopts the exclusive innovative technology of airic tech, which is more comfortable and safe than the original drug restasis, and has higher medication compliance and bioavailability; (3) Drugs have been included in the 2021 edition of the national medical insurance catalogue, and will achieve rapid volume in the future. It is estimated that zrun will generate revenue of RMB 116 million for Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) in 2021, and is expected to reach the sales peak of RMB 1.763 billion in the future.
Investment advice
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.037 billion yuan, 1.472 billion yuan and 2.119 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 50.55%, 41.93% and 43.97% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 202 million yuan, 306 million yuan and 497 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 129.87%, 51.38% and 62.34% respectively; The corresponding EPS is 2.30, 3.48 and 5.64 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 43.60 times, 28.80 times and 17.74 times respectively. We valued cyclosporine eye drops, atropine eye drops and other products and services through DCF method, and obtained that the total reasonable market value of the company was 14.953 billion yuan. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we gave a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The risk of drug promotion is less than expected; New drug R & D and approval risks; Pharmaceutical policy fluctuation risk.
