Price: steel prices fell this week
This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4870 yuan / ton, compared with – 0.6% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4960 yuan / ton, compared with – 1.2% last week. Raw material prices rose this week. Port iron ore prices rose this week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: rebar profit fell this week
In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 81 yuan / ton, – 63 yuan / ton and – 86 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel fell month on month this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week’s rebar output fell month on month, and the warehouses of the five major steel plants and social warehouses fell month on month
In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.85 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 234100 tons, of which the output of construction steel decreased by 138000 tons, the output of plate decreased by 96100 tons, and the output of rebar decreased by 84200 tons to 2649600 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week are 2308500 tons and 341100 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is -85400 tons and + 12000 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased from 313600 tons to 8769400 tons, the total inventory of steel mills decreased from 4178800 tons to 236900 tons, including 192500 tons of rebar social warehouse and 143500 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.9856 million tons, a decrease of 150000 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the daily average turnover of construction steel this week is 152900 tons, a decrease of 14.1% on a week-on-week basis.
Output is limited and steel inventory continues to decline
The meeting of the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that the output of crude steel was reduced by more than 20 million tons during the year. Under the background of double carbon, steel output is limited. On Friday, the output of large steel varieties fell by 234100 tons to a low of 8.85 million tons. On the demand side, steel has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, but under the expectations of standard reduction and relaxation of real estate policy, steel market confidence is not poor, superimposed with the decline of inventory, and the focus of steel price is expected to gradually rise. On the raw material side, the iron ore inventory is high, the coal supply continues to recover under the policy stimulus, and the foundation for the sharp rise of steel costs is not solid. On the whole, the current steel fundamentals show a double weak pattern of supply and demand. Under the expectation of the recovery of real estate policies, steel profits are expected to rebound. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel plate: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel plate: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk statement
The demand for steel for real estate fell precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
