Key investment points
Electrical equipment 12125 fell 7.37%, weaker than the market. This week (from December 20 to December 24, the same below), power generation and power grid rose 1.69%, industrial control automation rose 0%, nuclear power fell 0.79%, new energy vehicles fell 3.9%, photovoltaic fell 5.38%, wind power fell 6.09%, lithium battery fell 6.71%, and power generation equipment fell 7.56%. The top five increases were Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Lanzhou Greatwall Electrical Co.Ltd(600192) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) , Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) ; the top five decreases were Shijiazhuang Tonhe Electronics Technologies Co.Ltd(300491) , Jiangsu Sinojit Wind Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601218) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , * ST jiangte.
Industry level: All China Federation of industry and Commerce: it is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will exceed 5 million in 2022; Byd Company Limited(002594) 15gwh power battery project landed in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province, and 15gwh Jinan phase II project was signed; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the world’s largest project is put into operation in Fuding, with a planned capacity of 120gwh; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery project will be launched in Sichuan again, with a total investment of about 2.5 billion yuan; Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) it is proposed to increase the production capacity of 720 million flat diaphragm in Inner Mongolia by more than 2.3 billion yards; Hyundai will increase the global sales target of electric vehicles to 1.7 million in 2026; Niu Chuangxin energy released its first product, Youjia NV pure electric medium and large SUV, and 1H22 was listed; Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang EV completed the delivery of 1000 vehicles in Norway; American Automobile Company locked in the order of Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 200gwh lithium iron phosphate, with a value of 140 billion yuan; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) consider building a 2 billion euro battery factory in Poland; Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) signed a long-term agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , with a minimum supply of 512000 tons of aluminum foil in four years; Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) signed an equity investment intention with Dongguan Ali to plan the production capacity of square power battery shell; Metal cobalt is quoted at 490000 yuan / ton, this week + 0.4%, nickel at 150700 yuan / ton, this week + 1.2%, manganese at 39500 yuan / ton, this week – 5.0%, metal lithium at 122000 yuan / ton, this week + 4.7%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 257400 yuan / ton, this week + 7.7%, lithium hydroxide at 211900 yuan / ton, this week + 4.4%, cobalt sulfate precursor at 106000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.9%, The quotation of ternary 622 cathode is 255500 yuan / ton, this week + 2.4%, the quotation of lithium manganate cathode is 77000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.4%, the quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 99000 yuan / ton, this week + 13.8%, and the quotation of 9um wet diaphragm is 1.35 yuan / square, this week + 3.8%. New energy: the EU has released the European Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2021-2025. In 2021, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity of 27 EU Member States will be about 25.9gw, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, which is the best year in history and will continue to increase in the next decade. National Bureau of Statistics: China’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 22.7% in November; The commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II EVA project was successful; The list of the first batch of large-scale wind and Everbright base projects was released, with a total scale of 97.05gw; Daquan invested 33.25 billion yuan to build 721000 tons of silicon material project; Silicon wafer prices continued to fall, M10 fell 0.87% and G12 fell 2.44%. This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 235 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 6.00%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 4.95/5.78/8.5 yuan / wafer, which is flat month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery was 1.05 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc module is 1.93 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of – 2.53%; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: in November, the power grid investment was 69.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.5%; From January to November, the cumulative investment in power grid was 410.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.1%; From January to November, the capacity of substation equipment above 220kV was 193.95 million KVA, a year-on-year increase of + 1.23%.
Company level: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : 1) add ≤ 157 million euros to the Hungarian wet lithium battery isolation film project for capital construction and add 3 coating production lines, slitting equipment and other related supporting facilities; 2) The subsidiary invested and built aseptic liquid packaging box project in Jintan, Jiangsu, with a total investment of 2 billion yuan; 3) It is agreed that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will pay an advance payment of 850 million yuan to Shanghai Enjie to ensure that Shanghai Enjie will supply power battery wet diaphragm to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and its subsidiaries in 2022; Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : it is proposed to purchase 1.9 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent of Zimbabwe lithium mine with us $422 million; Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) : issue shares to specific objects to raise ≤ 3.2 billion yuan and invest in the production base project of new phosphate cathode materials with an annual output of 110000 tons and current supplement; Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) : the subsidiary won the bid for the heavy intelligent watt hour meter project, and the estimated total bid winning amount is 200 million yuan; Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) : Zhejiang Zhengtai, a subsidiary, plans to transfer 100% equity of Hangzhou Taijing to Three Gorges new energy at a transfer price of 165 million yuan and a total installed capacity of 254.37 MW; Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) : 1) the subsidiary plans to invest 2.3 billion yuan to build a special wet diaphragm production line for lithium batteries with an annual output of 720 million square meters in Hohhot; 2) The subsidiary plans to invest 980 million yuan in Zoucheng City, Shandong Province to build the cold repair and transformation project of 120000 tons of alkali free glass fiber tank furnace wire drawing production line; Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) : it is proposed to issue non-public shares and raise ≤ 2.1 billion yuan for new electrolyte lithium salt and integrated supporting projects and supplement working capital.
Investment strategy: there are many corrections in the electric vehicle sector this week. The market is mainly worried about the rapid rise of lithium price, and the United States may suppress China’s electric vehicle industry chain. We believe that this is mainly due to the emotional impact. Basically, the demand for electric vehicles continues to increase, the impact of rising costs can be absorbed by the industrial chain, and the trend of global procurement under professional division of labor is clear. We expect that in 2021, the sales volume in China will be 3.5 million, more than 2 million in Europe and nearly 650000 in the United States, with a total of more than 6 million in the world; In the new car cycle in 2022, the global sales volume exceeded 9 million, an increase of 50% +. In terms of the industrial chain, the demand in 2021q4 is still strong, and the production scheduling increases by another 20% month on month. In 2022q1, we expect that the off-season is not light, and the production scheduling month on month is expected to be flat. Battery enterprises generally feed back that orders are full in 2022, nearly doubling the growth. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to continue until 2022. In 2022, the volume and profit will still rise; In the battery sector, Q4 will be renegotiated in 2021, and we expect strong price increases. Some second-line battery enterprises have adjusted their prices by 10%. We expect the leader to follow. Therefore, the profitability of the battery sector will hit the bottom and rise in 2022; Meanwhile, the battery technology route will continue to upgrade in 2022, and 4680 and lithium manganese iron phosphate are expected to start mass production, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain; In terms of valuation, the number of leaders in 2022 is generally 40-50 times. Our performance doubled in 2022 and continues to be optimistic. We strongly recommend the global leader in the middle reaches of lithium battery and the leader in lithium resources. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term. In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from the downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets by large scenic base + the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and large penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectations and comprehensive breakthrough in power assembly), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components and strong comprehensive strength), Byd Company Limited(002594) (electric vehicle sales continue to exceed market expectations and accelerated external supply of blade battery), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader and power Internet of things benefit), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating leader), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high-volume increase can be expected), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader and high-capacity release can be expected), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (iron lithium demand supermarket expectation and profit inflection point), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorine chemical exceed market expectation) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader, positive prepolymer leader), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket market expectation in 2021), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader of series inverter, high performance growth), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (leader of integrated components, profit elasticity in 2022), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (leader of silicon and perc battery, profit exceeding market expectation), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe faucets, amount of photosensitive dry film), Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , {300207.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
