The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise, and the upgrading trend of beer structure is obvious
From December 20 to December 24, the food and beverage index increased by 3.8%, ranking second in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 4.5pct. Snacks (6.8%), health products (5.1%) and Baijiu in the sub sectors (4.3%) the relative performance is relatively advanced. This week, the price increase of Baijiu is expected to increase. The overall growth of the whole sector is larger. The price gap of Feitian Moutai liquor has been a focus of attention of the company and industry. Price reform is the core of Moutai’s market-oriented reform. After the company’s market-oriented reform moves frequently, the price of the market is expected to rise after the price has been effectively controlled. 。 Judging from the perspective of marketization, the price increase of Maotai liquor has a foundation, and the time point of price increase needs to be carefully expected. In addition to raising prices, our understanding of Maotai’s market-oriented reform needs to be comprehensive and three-dimensional. The prices of non-standard products such as zodiac and boutiques have been raised, and the price sorting and channel structure re layout of series wines have been basically completed. Even without considering Feitian’s price increase, the company can still improve its profits by relying on channel structure adjustment and product structure optimization. At present, the company is introducing measures such as canceling the unpacking policy to guide the return of prices to marketization, and the stability of wholesale prices is also conducive to the sustainable growth of the market.
We are optimistic about the long-term development of high-end Baijiu, and are still actively recommending Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We are relatively optimistic about the investment opportunities in the beer sector, and high-end should be the main investment logic and profit source of the industry. Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) the recent increase in attention is mainly due to the good performance of medium and high-end product U8, which drives the improvement of the overall structure. China Resources beer has made good overall progress in high-end recently. Compared with the first half of the year, the growth rate of secondary high-end and above products slowed down in the second half of the year, but it is estimated that the target growth at the beginning of the year should be achieved in the whole year. We expect that the secondary high-end products (mainly Heineken, Chunsheng and superx) will still grow rapidly in 2022, and whole wheat Chunsheng will be launched on the products (12-15 yuan / bottle), continue to improve the product structure; strengthen the sharpness of superx to attract more young consumer groups. At the same time, strengthen the input of product resources such as Mars green, red Jue and black lion. Considering the cost pressure, the expectation of price increase is stronger. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities brought by the structural upgrading of the beer sector.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the cancellation of Feitian Maotai unpacking policy is expected to narrow the price difference between original boxes and bulk bottles, which is conducive to market-oriented development. Maotai’s price increase is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of volume and price rise in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is more stable than that in the early stage. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan and the promotion of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , it is expected to achieve double-digit growth at a high rate in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows the strong fundamentals of the company. The media reports that the company will usher in a new direction of development. The company has a deep brand foundation, mature mechanism and team, and it is a long-term trend to realize the return of the brand to the high end. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) The price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding.
Plate Market Review: Food and beverage outperformed the market
From December 20 to December 24, the food and beverage index increased by 3.8%, ranking second in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 4.5pct. Sub sectors (6.8%), health products (5.1%) and Baijiu (4.3%) were relatively leading. In terms of stocks, Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) and others rose, while Weilong Grape Wine Co.Ltd(603779) , ST, Mai and Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) were among the top ones.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
