Zhou’s view: adjust the cycle and new technology after the layout, and stick to the long-term growth
(1) New energy vehicles: Recently, industry leaders have been adjusted greatly. We summarize three reasons and put forward relevant countermeasures: (a) The investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, the supply and demand will be rebalanced in the next year, and the valuation volatility will increase; response: pay attention to the three directions we put forward in the next year: return to the core growth, post cycle and new technology (the core growth is defensive, and find flexibility in the post cycle and new technology). (b) The low short-term demand, the negative feedback of the price rise of lithium battery upstream has been deeply reflected, which has reduced the demand of some links in the middle reaches; the way to deal with: the relative mood of negative feedback is the worst, and it is expected that the demand in the first quarter will have an appropriate time point compared with the off-season. (c) Recent event catalysis, such as the delayed implementation of U.S. policy expectations; response methods: the policies will eventually be implemented (expected in the first quarter), but in the third stage of the upward cycle of the industry, we should reduce expectations and pay attention to structure (the total increase of the United States is limited and pay attention to new products).
(2) Photovoltaic: the industry has also been greatly adjusted, and the investment stage has also entered the third stage. At the same time, the industrial chain has entered the cycle of price decline; the way to deal with it: pay attention to the power station end in the short term; the price of components in the medium term has been reduced to a relatively low point (there may be a rapid decline point) it contributes to the positive feedback of downstream demand. At present, this time point is about the first quarter. We are optimistic about the high growth of demand in 2022, mainly focusing on three investment opportunities: (a) we are optimistic about the opportunities of power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) and other companies; (b) Optimistic about the terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern; (c) optimistic about the industrial chain of auxiliary materials such as thermal field and adhesive film with good supply and demand in the medium and long term, the innovation at the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies.
Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) depth: build a comprehensive lithium battery business platform and meet high growth with multiple businesses
Build a comprehensive lithium battery business platform and meet high growth with multiple businesses. The company is a R & D technology driven platform company in the field of lithium batteries. It is a leader in the artificial graphite negative electrode industry and the third-party coating industry. It has advanced layout in subdivided links such as lithium battery equipment, PVDF and aluminum plastic film, and has been mass produced and shipped. The company is positioned in the high-end market, leading its peers in gross profit margin, and has good customer and technical synergy among various businesses. We are optimistic about the company’s rapid growth in the new global cycle.
Sector and company tracking
New energy automobile industry: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the largest single battery project in Fuding era lithium ion battery production base was officially put into operation
New energy automobile company: Byd Company Limited(002594) automotive industry and Daimler plan to increase the capital of Tengshi new energy by RMB 1 billion in monetary form according to the shareholding ratio
Photovoltaic industry level: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) 165 million yuan acquisition of Chint 254.37mw photovoltaic power station
Photovoltaic company level: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) plans to use idle raised funds of no more than 2.8 billion yuan for cash management
At the level of wind energy industry: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) successfully signed the 84mw wind power project in ivovik, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Risk tips: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
