General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets recently (new regulations on insurance funds, income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② the certainty of the long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; the scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, and the superposition system continues to be standardized, and ficc structure is stable Core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ The fundamentals and policies of securities companies are in great contrast with the valuation, and the profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high, Relative roe is close to the early bull market (2015-2016) level, but its valuation is still at the bottom quarter of the historical valuation, and we are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to recover and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① the negative effects of the comprehensive reform of property insurance and auto insurance are fully apparent, and the stronger the industry pattern is. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance expires, the premium growth of major insurance enterprises is expected to recover, and in the long run, it is OK The competition pattern of the industry has been optimized, and the leading insurance enterprises will benefit deeply, further strengthen the advantages of scale, channel and brand, and create competitive barriers. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical care ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Ranking of recommended sectors of Soochow non bank: Securities and insurance, recommended individual stock portfolio [ East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) ], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ], [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the CBRC issued the notice on standardizing and promoting the development of pension insurance institutions. We believe that China’s aging population is deepening and gradually approaching the deep aging society, while the construction of the third pillar of China’s pension is still in its infancy. The notice specifies that cultivating professional pension financial institutions is an important decision-making deployment for the development of the third pillar of pension insurance, and encourages pension insurance companies to design pension insurance that meets the differentiated pension needs of customers, We believe that the insurance companies that take the lead in the layout of the pension industry are expected to get the first mover advantage, and the imperative personal commercial pension insurance will also bring new power and increment to the insurance companies. 2) The plan for Chengdu and Chongqing to jointly build a western financial center was issued to encourage the development of equity investment funds in the western region. We believe that since 2021, favorable policies have continuously promoted the construction of China’s multi-level capital market, and China’s private equity investment funds will usher in better development opportunities. On the one hand, the rapid growth of private equity investment funds will provide a source of capital for the development, innovation and Entrepreneurship of China’s small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. On the other hand, in the golden age of wealth management, high net worth customers’ awareness of investment is deepening, and their financial needs are becoming stronger. The development of private venture capital enterprises will provide more diversified investment channels and value-added opportunities for residents’ wealth allocation.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is not as expected; 2) Policy convergence inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
