The steel price is stable in the off-season, focusing on the opportunities of subdivided plates
The steel price was stable this week. Driven by the improvement of macro expectations in the early stage, the main rebar contract rebounded from the bottom by more than 700 yuan, corresponding to a rise of 100 yuan in the spot price, and the overall commodity went deep into the discount repair market. Recently, the performance of raw materials represented by iron ore is obviously stronger than that of finished products. On the one hand, it is the correction rebound of continuous sharp decline in the early stage, on the other hand, In 2022, due to the possible relaxation of iron and steel production restriction (the Ministry of industry and information technology no longer emphasizes de production), the recovery of molten iron is expected to promote the continuous strengthening of raw materials. We believe that under the background of carbon neutralization, the probability of complete liberalization of iron and steel supply is low, but the State Council emphasizes “abolishing all unnecessary environmental protection law enforcement” As well as the background of steady growth, the possibility of repeating the large-scale production restriction movement in 2021 will be greatly reduced, and the profit center of steel enterprises will fall down in 2022. At this stage, due to the demand vacuum, commodities and stocks will be mainly driven by expectations. As the central economic work conference sets the tone and steady growth, specific policy documents may be issued successively in the future. The steel sector is expected to rise in fluctuations, mainly benefiting from Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) . In addition, we recommend focusing on Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) layout opportunities. Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) as a representative enterprise in the field of aluminum die casting in China, the original aluminum alloy wheel, cast aluminum alloy and master alloy business shows a trend of rapid growth, and is expected to increase in volume and profit in the future. At the same time, the company has successfully developed heat-free alloy, breaking the monopoly of foreign technology, and is expected to benefit from the trend of integrated die casting in the future.
The bottom of the ore price rebounded, and the coke price operated stably for the time being
(1) Iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 155.126 million tons, down 1.837 million tons month on month. The global shipment of iron ore was 32.064 million tons, up 3.1975 million tons week on month. Among them, Australia shipped 17.046 million tons, up 1.621 million tons week on month; Brazil shipped 5.61 million tons, up 848000 tons week on month. At the same time, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week reached 1.9901 million tons, down 0 . 10000 tons. This week, iron ore port inventory fell sharply, reaching 1.837 million tons. The decline in molten iron production of downstream steel mills also gradually narrowed, and ore prices rose continuously. At present, the rebound in ore prices is mainly driven by the expectation of hot metal repair in the early spring of next year, but in the future, steel enterprises will face the impact of off-season demand and environmental protection and production restriction pressure of the Winter Olympic Games, and the rise of ore prices will face twists and turns. (2) Coke: some coke enterprises have strong upward momentum under losses. In addition, the continuous rebound of futures has improved the mood of the industrial chain, and the coke price is expected to hit the bottom and rebound in the future.
Plate key data tracking
Weak demand operation: this week (December 20-december 24), the average trading volume of construction steel in China was 1529400 tons, with a decrease of 25100 tons on a weekly basis. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 2.986 million tons, with a decrease of 4.78% on a weekly basis; the apparent consumption of hot rolled coils was 2.98 million tons, with a decrease of 3.2% on a weekly basis;
Supply continued to weaken: the national blast furnace operating rate (163) was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42pct on a weekly basis; the capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 51.79%, with a decrease of 0.48pct on a weekly basis. The national weekly output of the five varieties was 8.851 million tons, with a decrease of 234000 tons on a monthly basis;
Profit fell slightly: this week (12.20-12.24), the gross profit per ton of deformed steel was 705 yuan, down 117 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of hot rolled plate was 629 yuan, down 99 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of cold rolled plate was 472 yuan, down 122 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of medium and heavy plate was 566 yuan, down 137 yuan month on month.
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
