Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by – 0.39% and – 1.06% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 1.59%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2021 (238 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by 4.17% and 1.66% respectively The (CITIC) index rose by 1.60%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 1.59%, ranking fourth among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 15 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and building materials, with an increase of 6.49%, 3.94% and 2.02% respectively. Since 2021, the trade and retail industry has increased by 1.60%, ranking 19th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2021, 22 of the 29 CITIC primary industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, power equipment and basic chemical industry, with an increase of 50.95%, 46.10% and 42.76% respectively.
In the past week, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries were supermarkets, home appliance 3C chain and trade, with an increase of 4.44%, 3.71% and 1.80% respectively. Since 2021, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are trade, gold jewelry and general merchandise, with an increase of 29.88%, 14.30% and 9.76% respectively.
Over the past week, Among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 64 companies rose, one company was flat and 28 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.Ltd(601116) , Hongtu hi tech and * ST friendly, with an increase of 12.45%, 12.20% and 11.85% respectively. Since 2021, there have been 93 major listed companies in the retail industry Among the companies (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 46 companies rose, one company was flat and 46 companies fell. Since 2021, the top three companies were commercial city, Shidai Wanheng and jinquanye, with an increase of 233.59%, 196.27% and 140.26% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Last Friday, the consumer sector rose in an all-round way, and the trend of the retail sector was also relatively strong, changing the previous decadent state. We think it is mainly related to style switching. On the one hand, the high valuation sector faces certain risks, resulting in short-term capital inflows into the stable consumer sector for risk avoidance. On the other hand, the defensive varieties headed by Baijiu liquor directly promoted the rise of other retail stocks. We believe that although the short-term data can not fully support the continued sharp rise of the retail sector, the defensive nature of consumer stocks next year will be recognized by the capital market. We recommend particularly the consumer goods with the value of investment and the anti inflation attribute, such as Baijiu channel merchants and gold jewelry, which can be protected and attacked. We believe that there will be better relative returns and absolute growth in 2022. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
