Chinese and foreign special drugs have been launched one after another, and the international oil price has risen sharply
This week, U.S. regulators granted Pfizer an emergency authorization for covid-19 oral drugs. The clinical trial data of domestic anti-covid-19 specific drugs were released, the market’s concerns about the Omicron epidemic were alleviated, and the international oil price rose sharply. As of December 25, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices closed at US $76.14/barrel and US $73.09/barrel respectively. The dollar index traded near 96.1.
The number of oil drilling rigs in the United States increased by 5, and the crude oil inventory decreased by 4.72 million barrels
This week, the number of active oil drilling wells in the United States increased by 5 to 480, and the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs increased by 7 to 586. U.S. crude oil inventory was 423.6 million barrels, a decrease of 4.72 million barrels over the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 224.1 million barrels, an increase of 5.53 million barrels over the previous week; Distillate oil inventory was 124.2 million barrels, an increase of 400000 barrels over the previous week.
OPEC output increased in November, increasing by 285000 barrels / day to 27.717 million barrels / day compared with the previous month
OPEC output increased in November, with Saudi Arabia’s output of 9.867 million barrels / day, an increase of 101000 barrels / day over the previous month; Iraq’s output was 4.24 million barrels per day, an increase of 91000 barrels per day over the previous month; Iran’s output was 2.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 9000 barrels per day over the previous month; Venezuela’s output was 625000 barrels / day, an increase of 15000 barrels / day over the previous month; Libya’s output was 1.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 15000 barrels per day compared with the previous month.
This week, the prices of naphtha, ethylene, propylene, butadiene and pure benzene fell. The price difference of naphtha, PDH and MTO increased.
The seven key tasks of energy work were released, and the energy work conference pointed out the direction of strategic transformation. This week, the 2022 national energy work conference was held, and the seven key tasks of energy work next year were released. Among them, energy security ranks first among the seven major tasks, and the intensity of oil and gas exploration and development is expected to be further improved; In the task of “accelerating the implementation of renewable energy substitution action”, the meeting focused on wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower projects, and pointed out the direction of long-term strategic transformation of oil and gas enterprises. In terms of crude oil market: on the supply side, Russia is expected to increase its oil and condensate production to 540-560 million tons and 542-562 million tons in 22 and 23 years respectively; In the text of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, 80% of Iran’s needs have been met, and Iranian oil is expected to return to the market. On the demand side, US regulators granted Pfizer covid-19 oral specific drug, which reduced the hospitalization of high-risk patients by 89% in large-scale clinical trials, and is expected to become a powerful means to combat the epidemic; The United States will lift travel restrictions on eight African countries from December 31; The clinical trial data of domestic anti covid-19 specific drugs can reduce the hospitalization rate and mortality of high-risk patients by 80%. The above information shows that despite the fierce outbreak of Omicron, the research and development of effective drugs continues, and the global demand for crude oil will maintain a recovery trend. In conclusion, we believe that Omicron has not changed the recovery trend of global crude oil demand, OPEC + production is limited, and the international oil price may continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the follow-up, we will continue to focus on the development trend of Omicron strain, the progress of vaccine R & D and vaccination, the implementation of OPEC + production increase plan, the progress of Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, etc.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the oil price will remain high in 22 years, so we are still optimistic about the petrochemical industry chain benefiting from the central rise of oil price. We suggest paying attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream plate, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service plate, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking plate, Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horses, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
Risk analysis: geopolitical risk, tension between China and the United States, and excessive growth of us production.
