Introduction: Recently, major liquor enterprises have successively held annual dealer conferences to gradually start the preparations for the Spring Festival peak season in the coming year. Some liquor enterprises have begun to make payments in 2022 and preliminarily planned the sales target for next year. Combined with the channel research in Henan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, North China, Shanxi and other regions, we update our views on the plate as follows.
High-end Baijiu: dynamic sales are healthy, and the performance growth in the coming year is definitely higher. High-end Baijiu gifts, business banquets and other needs are more rigid, estimated 22 years of stable demand. Channel feedback Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , the national cellar price basically landing, Moutai frequent price increases, and now see the certainty of higher marketing reform, comprehensive look at the growth of high-end Baijiu has support. 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the annual task of 2021 has been completed. Some markets begin to pay in January next year, and the inventory is at a low level. At present, the wholesale price of bulk bottles is 2600-2700 yuan and the wholesale price of whole boxes is 3200-3250 yuan. Revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 22 years. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal acceleration brought by marketing reform and the effectiveness of subsequent price control. 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : in the year of 22, the delivery cost of the eighth generation has increased to 969 yuan / bottle. Some dealers have completed 10-20% payment collection in the coming year. Henan and other markets have fed back that the payment collection requirements for the Spring Festival have reached 40% +. Recently, the rated price of the eighth generation has rebounded to 970-980 yuan. In the coming year, we will set the tone and make progress while maintaining stability. The actual sales of puwu will be smooth and verify the strong brand strength. If the equity incentive is successfully promoted, it is expected to further catalyze the valuation. 3) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : at present, it is reported that the progress of payment in the first stage under the control of the winery is slow, with a high national cellar rating of about 910 yuan. According to the channel feedback, the planned settlement price will be raised to about 960 yuan / bottle next year. Throughout the year, the growth of old cellars in high-end Baijiu liquor is more prominent, and the profit elasticity is more obvious under the cost contraction.
National sub high end: product upgrading + intensive cultivation of channels, with more growth. According to the general feedback from channels, the upgrading of wine for banquets and drinks is obvious. At present, the epidemic situation in some areas has been repeated, but it is estimated that the impact on dynamic sales is limited. Under the upgrading of industrial structure, the demand for secondary high-end products has a certain toughness. 1) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : it is estimated that the sales inside and outside the province will increase by more than 50% in 21 years. At present, preparations have been made for a good start in 22 years. It is expected that the proportion of Q1 payment collection can reach 40-45%. Next year, Qinghua will lead the product upgrading, and the channel flattening strategy will continue. It is expected that the performance in the beginning and the whole year of 22 years is expected to maintain a high increase. 2) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : in the past 21 years, the company’s performance was brilliant, and the price and inventory control were significantly improved. At the end of the year, the company controlled goods, raised prices and stored energy. In the coming year, the company’s concept of old wine gradually took effect, the level of marketing refinement was significantly improved, and the growth and flexibility were strong. 3) Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : Jiangsu and other markets reported that the progress of payment collection was faster than that of the same period last year. In December, the work of making money and preparing goods for the 22nd Spring Festival has begun. At present, the dealer’s inventory is low, and the terminal has a certain inventory for the peak season. The company has a solid brand foundation. The sub high-end single products are in a period of rapid growth, and the collection is expected to lead the brand to upgrade.
Su liquor: the upgrading trend is obvious, and the growth of local liquor leaders is expected to accelerate. Jiangsu has been upgrading the Baijiu price market. The channels feed back to Nanjing, etc. the wedding banquet and banquet are basically over 400-500 yuan with wine. Some scenes have been upgraded to the 600 yuan price of dream 6+, and the performance of the second high-end market real estate is strong. 1) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : it is estimated that the sales will increase by 20% in 21 years. At present, the spring festival goods preparation period is gradually entering. The dealers report that the payment and goods preparation work in 2022 has started in November. By the end of November, the total inventory of dealers and terminals in the province was within 1-2 months, In the Spring Festival peak season of 22 years, it is required to collect 50% of the annual tasks (about 40% in previous years). With the promotion of internal and external reform, the marginal improvement trend of the company is more obvious in the secondary high-end liquor enterprises. 2) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : after the sales work is completed in 2021, the sales caliber is estimated to achieve 25% + growth, and the 22-year growth plan is relatively positive. In the coming year, the product power of Guoyuan Sikai will continue, and V3 is expected to continue to be large-scale. In addition, equity has been repurchased in 21 years and is intended to be used for equity incentive. In 22 years, it is recommended to pay attention to the promotion of equity incentive.
Investment suggestions: in the short term, pay attention to the performance of the Spring Festival peak season and the implementation of price increases of wine enterprises, see the fulfillment of growth plans next year, and pay attention to the promotion rhythm of equity incentives of relevant wine enterprises. Continue to recommend high-end Baijiu ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ), the second high-end liquor Baijiu, the key recommendation Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , the internal and external reform under the marginal improvement trend is obvious, the valuation level of higher price performance, recommended Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , the follow-up reform dividend continues to release, business potential is expected to continue.
Risk analysis: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, industry competition is intensified, and macroeconomic growth is at downward risk.
