Profit rebounded + valuation fell, and the value of plate allocation increased
The stabilization of real estate policy + the withdrawal of share prices in popular industries, and the household appliance sector outperformed the market by 3.1 percentage points in December. The recent high-level meeting was held intensively to determine the tone of "steady growth" for the economic situation next year. In terms of real estate policy, the meeting proposed to ensure the "virtuous circle" of the industry under the principle of "housing without speculation", and implement policies to support reasonable housing demand, We judge that cities with high real estate sales pressure in the future are expected to make marginal adjustment to the excessively strict policies in the early stage. The bottom of real estate policy appears + the belief in popular industries is loose, and the household appliance sector has become a safe haven for funds, Since December, the home appliance index has risen by 2.9% (as of December 24), outperforming the market by 3.1 percentage points. In terms of fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object, and their overall ROE (TTM) has been in the decline channel since the mid-18 year report peaked, and the ROE (TTM) in the third quarter report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then hit the bottom and rebounded, reaching the third quarter report of roe in 21 years (TTM) rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (the first quarterly report of 2014 - the third quarterly report of 2021). Looking forward to 2022q1, the bad situation in the household appliance sector is gradually passivated + the valuation is low, and the better allocation time point is approaching.
(1) Bearish passivation: raw material prices open a downward channel, the superposition base increases, and the upstream cost pressure decreases marginally in 2022. (2) low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks falls below the historical average relative to the market. (3) rising allocation value: the experience of the past 16 years shows that Q4 to Q1 is the period with high winning rate. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: (1) Traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery focus on Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) focus on Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) emerging household appliances with high prosperity, with relevant targets of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Fundamentals: the decline in real estate sales narrowed in November, and home appliance retail was slightly weak
Real estate data: from January to November, the sales area of commercial housing in China increased by 5% compared with that in 2020 (compared with the same period in 19 years, + 6%), the single month in November 2021 decreased by 14% compared with the same period in 2020, which was lower than before, mainly due to the marginal improvement of the credit environment and the slight easing of the capital pressure of real estate enterprises. The completed area of houses from January to November was + 16% year-on-year, including + 13% year-on-year in November. The growth rate of completed area increased significantly month-on-month, or due to the relaxation of the short-term capital chain.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 9.78 million household air conditioners (yoy-2.4%) were shipped in November, including 5.17 million domestic air conditioners (yoy-4.5%). The rise in manufacturing costs this year led to the fact that the enterprise's double 11 publicity was lower than in previous years, and the retail data were flat; in November, 4.6 million air conditioners were exported (YoY + 0.1%), the increase narrowed, mainly due to the gradual slowing down of stock demand. Retail end: the year-on-year retail volume / volume of air conditioning in all channels in November was - 21% / - 16%, respectively - 45% / - 36% compared with the same period in 2019, mainly due to the weak real estate sales and the weak promotion of double 11. In terms of price, the industry average price from 20q4 turned positive year-on-year, and the online / offline price maintained a high growth in November, the same score + 3% / + 13%; (2) Chef's electricity: in November, the omni-channel retail volume / volume of range hood was - 18% / - 8% year-on-year, and - 13% / - 6% year-on-year. The boom was poor, mainly due to the excessive release of demand at the beginning of the year and the sluggish real estate sales; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in November was - 12% / - 3% compared with the same period in 2020, and - 8% / + 2% compared with the same period in 19. The retail volume / volume of washing machines in November was - 16% / - 12% compared with the same period in 19, and - 6% / - 3% compared with the same period in 19. (4) clean appliances: the online retail volume / volume of clean appliances in November was - 7% / + 27% compared with the same period in 2020, and the offline retail volume / volume was - 32% / - 21% compared with the same period in 19. The increase of the base led to a slowdown year-on-year.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
