Core recommended portfolio: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531)
New energy power generation:
Photovoltaic: photovoltaic silicon materials continue to expand production, and the tension between supply and demand in the industrial chain is expected to ease; Demand recovered in the first quarter, not in the off-season. Recently, in terms of improving the Siemens route, Daquan and Xinyi solar energy launched a total of 400000 tons of polysilicon production expansion plan, with phase I of 100000 tons / year and 60000 tons / year respectively. In terms of granular silicon, poly GCL successfully completed the placement and raised nearly 5 billion yuan, which is mainly used for the construction of new production increasing energy of granular silicon. At present, both new and old players in the industry plan to expand production on a large scale. In the long run, polysilicon is expected to be fully supplied. With the decline of silicon material price, the quotation of components decreased significantly. From the delivery price in the first quarter, the lowest price has been reduced to 1.82 yuan / W. Globally, the first quarter is the fiscal year node of Japan and India. From now to April 1 next year, it is in the empty window period of India without punitive tariffs, and the overseas demand in the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations. With the decline of module prices, China’s demand is expected to recover in the first quarter, and the photovoltaic demand in the first quarter is expected to be not weak in the off-season. It is recommended to pay attention to polysilicon material and battery faucet Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ; Component faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; Large silicon chip faucets Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Inverter taps Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; Photovoltaic auxiliary materials: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Layout Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) of the new technical route; Operation of photovoltaic power station: Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) .
Wind power / energy storage: new energy storage is officially listed as the main body of the market, and participation in power auxiliary services is encouraged; With the gradual improvement of auxiliary service price system, the market is expected to expand rapidly. On December 21, the National Energy Administration issued the regulations on the management of power grid connected operation and the measures for the management of power auxiliary services, which included electrochemical energy storage, compressed air energy storage, flywheel and other new energy storage into the management of grid connected entities, and encouraged grid connected entities such as new energy storage to participate in power auxiliary services. The regulations are applicable to the grid connected entities and new energy storage at the generation side directly dispatched by power dispatching institutions at or above the provincial level, while the measures focus on the supplement and deepening of auxiliary service providers, transaction variety classification, power user sharing mechanism, inter provincial and inter regional auxiliary service mechanism, etc. At present, the cost of power auxiliary services in China accounts for about 1.5% of the total electricity cost of the whole society. According to international experience, this ratio should be more than 3%. At the same time, it will continue to increase with the large-scale access of new energy. With the improvement of auxiliary service price standards according to the actual situation, the power auxiliary service market is expected to usher in rapid growth. It is suggested to pay attention to the energy storage industry chain and join hands with the target Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) of Ningde energy storage ecosystem; Recommend Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and parts enterprises with rapid growth performance Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) , Shandong Shuangyi Technology Co.Ltd(300690) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) .
New energy vehicles: a series of group standards of code for construction of shared power station for electric passenger vehicles were officially released; Huawei released the first Hongmeng auto AITO M5. The group standard of code for construction of electric passenger vehicle shared power exchange station was officially released, which provides unified technical requirements for the construction of shared power exchange station from 13 aspects, such as technical requirements of power exchange battery pack, technical requirements of vehicle power exchange mechanism and planning and layout requirements of power exchange station. The construction of power exchange station may enter a period of rapid growth. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would launch a pilot city for the comprehensive electrification of vehicles in the public domain and carry out activities for new energy vehicles to the countryside. The downstream demand for new energy vehicles is expected to further usher in a large amount. On December 23, the first commercial Huawei harmony OS smart car with smart cockpit was released at Huawei’s winter flagship new product conference. It was jointly built by Huawei and Thales. It will be launched in February 2022 and delivered after the Spring Festival. The model is positioned as an intelligent luxury SUV, and the pre price range after subsidy is 250000 ~ 320000 yuan. Zhongkehaina plans to build a 1GWh large-scale production line of sodium ion batteries in Fuyang, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022. In addition, it is planned to build a sodium ion battery production line of no less than 30gwh. Zhongkehai sodium said that under the condition of mass production in the future, the material cost of the company’s sodium ion battery is expected to be 0.26 yuan / wh, about 30% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery with the same capacity. In terms of recommendation, continue to recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
Risk tip: the installed demand of new energy is less than expected, the new energy power generation policy is less than expected, and the macro-economy is less than expected.
