Liquidity: the growth difference between M1 and M2 ended, deviated negatively for 6 consecutive months, and converged slightly in November. (1) The value of BCI’s financing environment index in November 2021 was 43.94, with a month-on-month ratio of – 0.83%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in November 2021, with a month on month increase of + 0.4 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: in mid December, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 2.26% month on month. (1) Price changes this week: screw thread – 0.61%, cement price index – 1.8%, rubber – 1.46%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 7.55%; (2) the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate this week are + 0.05pct, -2.45pct, + 0.10pct and + 0.86pct respectively; (3) On December 20, 2021, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises was 1.8905 million tons, a month on month increase of – 2.26%.
Real estate completion chain: glass and PVC prices fell month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass this week were + 0.00% and – 0.74% month on month respectively; (2) the profit of titanium dioxide this week was 2475 yuan / ton, month on month -7.78%; and (3) the price of PVC was 9066.00 yuan / ton, month on month -0.55%.
Industrial chain: the average value of wholesale and retail of passenger cars rose by 5.11% month on month. (1) Price performance of main bulk commodities: cold rolling, copper and aluminum prices changed by + 0.00%, + 0.56%, + 3.51% month on month, corresponding to gross profit changes of – 8.71%, – 0.40%, + 22.15%; (2) the 4-week rolling value of average daily sales of passenger cars wholesale and retail was 139000, month on month + 5.11%; (3) the operating rate of semi steel tires in China this week was 63.75%, month on month -0.25 percentage points.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States is still at the highest level in the same period of five years. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 3300.19 points this week, with a month on month ratio of + 1.69%; (2) the utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 81.80% this week, with a month on month ratio of – 0.60 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the profit of electrolytic aluminum rebounded to 3455 yuan / ton. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) nickel: the price this week is 151650 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (3) stainless steel: the price this week is 17600 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of – 0.56%; (4) prebaked anode: the price this week is 5450 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%, and the profit is 505 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20080 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 3.51%, and the estimated profit is 3455.0 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a month on month ratio of + 22.15%); (6) the gross profit of alumina is 698 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 11.31%); (7) power coal: the price of this week is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 12.96%); (8) the price list of other varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and tungsten concentrate are + 1.32%, + 1.85% to 2310 and 110000 yuan / ton respectively.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread remains positive. (1) The price ratio of screw thread and iron ore was 6.00 this week; (2) the price difference between hot coil and screw thread steel was 90 yuan / ton; (3) the price difference between Shanghai cold rolled steel and screw thread steel was 740 yuan / ton this Friday, with a month on month ratio of + 30 yuan / ton; (4) the price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled electrolytic nickel was 0.13, at a 10-year low. (5) spiral screw (mainly used in real estate) and screw thread steel The price difference (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 290 yuan / ton on Friday, a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 0.67%, and the best performance of the cyclical sector was shipping (+ 5.88%). The ratio of Pb in the steel sector to Pb in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.65, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.9 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: great attention should be paid to the investment in controlling energy consumption and carbon emission. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that the implementation plan for carbon peak in key industries such as iron and steel and nonferrous metals has been prepared, and the dual control policy of capacity and output in the iron and steel industry will become a new normal in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the following targets: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , {6000222} Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) 。
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; The risk of poor management of the company.
