Key events of this week: 1) the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a document to encourage the M & A of high-quality real estate projects: Recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in the M & a financial services of key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, encouraged high-quality enterprises to increase the M & A of real estate projects, and required financial institutions to increase their support for M & A loans and bond financing, The issuance of the notice is expected to further promote the marketization process of risk resolution and disposal of real estate enterprises. 2) 25 cities have introduced subsidized house purchase policies: Statistics released by Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center on the 24th show that in the past month, at least 25 places, including Guilin, Jinjiang, Hohhot and Jingmen, have introduced subsidized house purchase policies. Under the framework of “no speculation in housing and housing”, local policies are expected to gradually stabilize due to urban policies. 3) Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) announcement on project investment: on December 22, the company announced that Taibo Zoucheng plans to invest 980 million yuan in Zoucheng, Shandong Province to build a 120000 ton / year alkali free glass fiber tank furnace wire drawing cold repair and transformation project, with a construction period of 8 months, which is mainly used in the fields of energy-saving and environmental protection building materials, automobile lightweight and wind power new energy; Nanjing Glass Fiber Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to invest 150 million yuan to establish Suqian company in Suqian, Jiangsu, and invest in the construction of 12000 tons of glass fiber filter paper production line and 4000 tons of high silica glass fiber products production line; Sinoma lithium membrane plans to invest 2.3 billion yuan to build a special wet diaphragm production line with an annual output of 720 million square meters for lithium batteries in Hohhot; Sinoma blade plans to establish a joint venture with Sinoma overseas in Brazil, and invest in the construction of a wind power blade manufacturing base with an annual output of 260 sets. 4) Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) it is planned to build a production capacity of 15000 tons of high-purity quartz sand: on December 20, the company announced that it plans to invest 330 million to build a project with an annual output of 15000 tons of high-purity quartz sand. It is expected to start in January 22, with a construction cycle of 18 months, and is expected to be put into operation in the middle of 23. We expect that the company’s new high-purity quartz sand project with an annual output of 20000 tons is expected to be put into operation in 22q1. With the continuous release of the new capacity, the company’s high-purity quartz sand sales are expected to maintain a high growth. 5) Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) plans to establish a joint venture in Thailand and change the position of the company’s director: on December 21, the company announced that it plans to invest and establish a joint venture in Thailand with Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) and Handan Sinoma, with a registered capital of 28 million US dollars equivalent to Thai baht, and plans to invest in the construction of a paper gypsum board production line with an annual output of 40 million square meters, a light steel keel production line with an annual output of 3000 tons A decorative gypsum board production line with an annual output of 4 million square meters and its supporting facilities. The construction period of the project is 18 months. We believe that this move is expected to increase the company’s international market share. On the same day, the company announced the nomination of Mr. Yin Zibo and Mr. Jia Tongchun as candidates for directors of the sixth board of directors. Non independent directors Yang Yanjun and Ms. Pei Hongyan planned to resign as directors of the company. Ms. Yang Yanjun still served as deputy general manager and financial director of the company, and Ms. Pei Hongyan no longer served as any position of the company and its holding subsidiaries.
This week’s view: many places have introduced house purchase subsidy policies. At the same time, the central bank and the CIRC encourage real estate project mergers and acquisitions. The margin of real estate policy is good. The real estate chain is expected to be repaired, and the price rise is gradually falling / the price of raw materials is falling. Brand building materials are gradually entering the layout time point, and the leading certainty is high. The prosperity of carbon fiber / quartz sand / glass fiber continues and continues to be recommended. The price of glass plate rebounded at the bottom, focusing on the expansion of new categories such as photovoltaic, electronics and pharmaceutical glass. The expected marginal improvement of real estate + the acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support the cement demand. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is cost-effective, and the leader of volume increase logic is preferred. The cost side of the water reducing agent sector is declining rapidly, and the leader with new category expansion logic is preferred. 1) For the carbon fiber industry, We believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high demand growth (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the “favorable climate, geography and people”. After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of “domestic substitution” and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, we will get the “raw silk” Those who win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the penetration rate of the industry increases or depends on changing “price” for “demand”. We suggest paying attention to the carbon fiber leader Zhongfu Shenying (to be listed), Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , precursor leader Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Hengshen Co., Ltd.; carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; downstream composite manufacturer Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Hongfa new material, etc. 2) For consumer building materials, on the one hand, the end of the real estate policy has been realized, the financing end of the real estate industry has improved significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of the real estate chain is expected to continue to repair. On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of price increases and the decline of raw material prices, we judge that the profitability of consumer building materials is expected to gradually improve, and the industry will gradually enter the layout time point. Consumer building materials leaders have advantages in brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, focusing on leading enterprises Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . 3) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the price of quartz sand is expected to rise steadily; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are mainly recommended. 4) For the glass fiber industry, roving prices are running smoothly this week, and electronic yarn is slightly loose. We expect that the new production capacity of roving in 21q4-22 will be limited to 260000 tons, and the demand will continue to improve. Under the low inventory level, the high outlook of roving is expected to continue. We expect that in 21q4-22, the new production capacity of electronic yarn will be about 150000 tons, and there will still be new production at the supply end. It does not rule out that the subsequent electronic yarn prices will still be loose, but it is expected that the overall production capacity will remain at a good level in 22 years. Focus on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) . 5) For the glass industry, we judge that under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the current high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, according to the data of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and Industrial Glass Association, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively, and the cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to maintain a good level. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and it is recommended to focus on Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) Wait. 6) For the cement industry, the quota of new special bonds will be issued in advance in 2022, the infrastructure is expected to gradually develop, the marginal relaxation of the real estate financing end may lead to the expected improvement of the market, and the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials. 7) For the water reducing agent industry, the price of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped by about 25% from a higher point, and there is still a possibility of decline; By the end of September, the centralized price increase of major manufacturers is expected to be gradually implemented, and the industry profit is expected to improve. Leading companies have obvious competitive advantages, and new products benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, which is expected to maintain high growth. It is mainly recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . 8) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) : the company is the leader in the production and export of PVC flooring, and the growth elasticity of production capacity will be highlighted in the future. Although in the early stage, due to the rise of raw material prices, exchange rate and shipping pressure, the profit is under pressure, but at present, the export chain benefits from a high outlook and the sea freight decreases, the enterprise gradually adjusts the price, the cost side also drops, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired.
Considering that the final demand period has entered and peak production has been staggered in many places, the cement price is expected to decline seasonally, but the overall price center will remain high. The advanced development of follow-up infrastructure investment and the expected improvement of real estate are expected to support demand, and the role of policy regulation of coal price has been reflected, and the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to be relieved. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of cement plate. This week, the national cement market price fell by 0.9% month on month. The price drop areas mainly include Jiangsu, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Chongqing and Sichuan, with a range of 30-50 yuan / ton; The price rise areas are Henan and Tibet, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton. In late December, China’s cement market continued to operate weakly. With the decline in the operating rate of projects and mixing plants, the cement demand further decreased month on month; In terms of price, cement enterprises in some regions, such as Henan and Tibet, are preparing for the opening of the market next year and try to push up the price in the off-season. With the continuous decline of market demand in other regions, the price mainly continues to fall. The national storage capacity ratio was 63.1%, with a month on week ratio of – 2.1pct, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5pct; The shipment rate was 51.5%, with a chain comparison of -3.7pct and a year-on-year comparison of -14.4pct. We believe that the combination policy regulation of “price limit + production increase” of coal has gradually played a role in recent years. Enterprises actively carry out peak shifting production, Q4 price center is expected to remain high, and the cost pressure is expected to be relieved. Looking forward to next year, although the overall real estate demand may be under pressure, the margin has improved, and with the development of infrastructure, the overall demand toughness will remain; In addition, the coal price is expected to fall, and the enterprise profit toughness is expected to be maintained. We are still optimistic about the further repair of the plate. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , and China building materials.
Glass fiber: the high prosperity of the industry is expected to continue, and the “dual control of energy consumption” helps to optimize the industry pattern. We expect that the new capacity of the industry from 21q4 to 22 will be very limited, with about 26000 / 150000 tons of roving / electronic yarn respectively. Moreover, the production line is put into operation more dispersed. We expect the marginal new capacity of 21q4-22q4 to be 7.1/2.9/1.3/1.3/0 MT / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that in the 21st / 22nd year, the global effective production capacity of glass fiber will be 8.79/9.41 million tons, the demand will be 8.91/9.43 million tons, the supply and demand pattern will be better, the inventory will be low, and the price boom is expected to continue. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leader has core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leader in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced whether from the perspective of increasing market share or continuous decline in cost. We expect that the profit of the bottom leader in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending the glass fiber leader China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . We also recommend Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (diaphragm price starts the upward cycle, wind power is expected to hit the bottom and rise, glass fiber profit is expected to exceed expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the future growth sustainability of the three plates), Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (capacity expansion planning is clear, growth is gradually realized, industrial chain integration has strong risk resistance), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
At present, brand building materials are gradually entering the layout time point. We believe that the current leading industries such as gypsum board, waterproof, ceramic tile and coating have high configuration value. At the industry level, we believe that the completion end is stronger than the commencement end. In terms of segmentation, the industry leaders with low market share or category expansion logic deserve special attention. Even if the overall demand of the industry is under pressure, the anti periodicity of the leaders will be significantly better than that of the industry. 1) Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) : gypsum board landscape and high-end resonance, waterproof and keel provide growth; The periodic attribute is expected to weaken significantly; The current valuation is very cost-effective; In the past, the market’s valuation of the company mainly referred to the cyclical stocks with low ceiling. With the gradual implementation of the strategy of one body and two wings and global layout, the growth is prominent, and the valuation space is expected to be opened. We continue to focus on recommendation. 2) The waterproof industry has a large long-term demand space, and the photovoltaic roof system also brings new increment. At present, the industry pattern is relatively clearer, and the leader has also built strong competitive barriers. With the help of channel advantages, leading enterprises expand in multiple categories, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) extend their business to the fields of coatings / thermal insulation materials, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) cut into the blue ocean market of building vibration reduction and isolation, and leading enterprises fully extend their business lines to create new growth points and enhance anti periodicity. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . 3) Ceramic tiles ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) ): large industries and small companies, leading enterprises have a lot of room to improve their market share; the driving factors are brands, channels and costs; we believe that companies with an income of 10-20 billion are expected to appear in the industry in the next 2-3 years. The current valuation has fully reflected the sad expectation, but the actual fundamentals are not poor, so Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) (the product price has been adjusted by 5% since October 1) and Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) (five of the seven production lines temporarily shut down in the early stage have resumed production). 4) in the hardware industry, we continue to recommend Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) . The core advantage of strong and strong lies in the obvious comprehensive supply capacity and service advantages caused by direct sales channels and information construction; in the future, reuse channels to realize “asset light” Category expansion to build a platform and integrated leader. The short-term market is worried that the tightening of real estate funds will affect the company’s cash flow. In fact, small enterprises are more affected, and the advantages of leading enterprises are expected to continue to play. 5) The C-end of the coating industry has strong brand and channel strength, and the leading enterprises have been fed back by the b-end, which we believe will continue to deepen. The cash flow / cost of short-term coating leading enterprises is affected by the tightening of real estate funds / the rise of raw material prices, which increases the operating pressure, but the high growth / continuous improvement trend of leading enterprises remains unchanged. It is recommended to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) . 6) In the pipe industry, we recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) (looking at the improvement of sales and management, high valuation and cost performance), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (looking at the business development of waterproof and water purification), and we suggest paying attention to China Liansu. 7) Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) : the company is the first stock to be listed in the door and lock. The C-end has strong brand and channel power, and the subsequent capacity expansion helps to open the b-end market space; And the company relies on dealers to complete installation and service, with excellent cash flow level; In the follow-up, wooden doors, electronic locks and other products continue to make great efforts, with key recommendations.
The continuous recommendation demand in the field of new materials is concentrated in the quartz material and carbon fiber industries with strong long-term growth such as military industry, semiconductor and photovoltaic, and the leaders Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) with strong technical and cost advantages are recommended. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) recommended logic: look at the semiconductor and photovoltaic fields. 1) High demand for semiconductors + diffusion and etching qualification certification of core equipment manufacturers, looking forward to large-scale performance. 2) High demand for high-purity sand in photovoltaic field + domestic substitution + capacity release resonance, which is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. In addition, the carbon fiber industry is driven by the demand for new energy such as wind power / photovoltaic / hydrogen energy, and the growth rate of civil market demand is accelerated; At the same time, with the technology maturity, cost reduction and rapid production expansion of China’s leading enterprises, the localization rate of carbon fiber is expected to continue to improve. The industry continues to prosper, and the leading carbon fiber company Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) is recommended.
Glass toughness still exists, and attention is paid to the development of multi category glass. The average price of building white glass this weekend was 2156 yuan / ton (from last week to 21, year-on-year to 46); the inventory was 29.87 million weight boxes (from last week to + 6, year-on-year to + 436); the inventory days were 10.71 days (from last week to + 0.02, year-on-year to + 1.18); the utilization rate of glass capacity at the weekend was 73.48% (from last week to + 2.80%); the capacity of glass under production at the weekend was 101.772 million weight boxes (from last week to month)
