Key investment points
New energy vehicles: this year, electric vehicles belong to a comprehensive high-level market brought about by the continuous demand exceeding expectations, of which Tesla industrial chain is the strongest investment main line. At the right time, we pay more attention to the prosperity index with the midstream production scheduling and downstream production and marketing data as the core; From the perspective of stock selection, we are still optimistic about the leading companies with cost and product advantages in the medium and long term. At the same time, we are optimistic about the opportunities of simultaneous increase in volume and price brought by short supply and the second-line elastic target brought by capacity overflow. We continue to recommend: 1) parts: thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ; Intelligent chassis: Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (brake by wire); intelligent cockpit: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) (car audio); sensor: Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) (LIDAR motor), etc. 2) power battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other highly competitive leading targets. The positive poles of product volume and price rise together ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) ), electrolyte (Tianci, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ), negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ), flame retardant ( Zhejiang Wansheng Co.Ltd(603010) ), lithium battery equipment ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), and lithium & Copper foil, pay attention to PVDF supply chain (pay attention to Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) of elastic subject, etc.).
New energy power generation: (1) photovoltaic: the market is worried that the price rise will affect demand, but this worry misunderstands the logical order. This round of price rise is not caused by supply disturbance (3q20), which is caused by the increase of demand when the supply of scarce links remains unchanged. In 2021, the potential demand for photovoltaic is very high, and the supply chain can not meet the demand. The potential demand can only be reduced through price increase and profit distribution of the industrial chain to match the supply capacity. Both unit profit and total profit of the industrial chain are in the expansion stage. Recently, the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers Decline, the price principle starts, and the terminal demand returns to equilibrium. We believe that 2021 is still a big year for photovoltaic demand, New installed capacity or up to 170gw (the demand for components restricted by the supply chain) increased by about 30% at the same time. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the supply and demand of silicon is tight, the supply and demand of EVA resin continues to be tight, the supply and demand of glass is relieved, the price of silicon wafer is supported or better than expected due to the release rhythm of supply and the cost curve, and the battery profit is in the bottom range. The current industry valuation in 2021 has a high horizontal and vertical comparison and high cost performance. Key recommendations: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , etc. it is suggested to pay attention to: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi light energy, etc. (2) Wind power: considering the sea breeze, the second wave of land rush loading, large base projects and the opening of parity cycle, the demand may reach more than 50gw in 2021 (the demand caliber of the industrial chain has increased year-on-year). The bidding volume in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 41.8gw, which also indicates that the installed capacity will continue to grow in 2022. The recent downward turn in bulk prices has also dispelled the market’s concern about cost. The whole machine link in the wind power industry chain is flexible and the performance of parts and components is highly deterministic. In addition, there is an obvious trend of large-scale in this round of wind power boom cycle, which has a negative impact on the industrial chain The impact is far-reaching and worthy of attention. At present, the median valuation of the industry in 2021 is 24 times, with high cost performance. Key recommendations: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , etc. it is recommended to pay attention to: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , etc. (3) Energy storage: the new energy storage will increase nearly 10 times in the next five years and develop rapidly. It is recommended to focus on the industrial chain dominated by lithium battery energy storage, including lithium battery, inverter and photovoltaic hydrogen production. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , and pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) , etc.
Power Grid & industrial control: 1) under the direction of new power system, the growth rate of power grid investment is expected to increase, in which energy storage, digitization & informatization, distribution network, amorphous transformer, intelligent operation and maintenance, power electronics, flexible DC and other links are expected to be strengthened. Yunlu Co., Ltd., Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to China Southern network technology, Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) , etc. 2) Under the dual carbon background, the demand for industrial control has been improving for a long time, the downstream demand for lithium battery, photovoltaic, logistics and semiconductor has maintained a high momentum, the share of domestic industrial control brands has accelerated, and the orders and performance are expected to continue to exceed expectations. It is recommended to Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Moons’ Electric Co.Ltd(603728) . 3) In the context of dual carbon, the construction of new energy power generation & energy storage, 5g, data center, charging pile and other industries has accelerated, the demand for supporting low-voltage appliances and relays has increased rapidly, and the proportion of high-end & Intelligent has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Kunshan Guoli Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(688103) such as Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) .
Major changes in the industry:
New energy vehicles: 1) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : Hungary wet process project increased investment, opened aseptic packaging and accelerated production expansion. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) agreed to pay an advance payment of 850 million yuan for wet diaphragm, and the diaphragm has been in short supply for 22 years; 2) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) : the air suspension gets the ideal car order, and the chassis business performance is approaching the breaking point.
New energy power generation: 1) Jiangsu announced the annual electricity market transaction price, with a green power premium of 0.07 yuan / kwh; 2) In November, the component export was 8.6gw, increasing by 15% at the same time, and the component price remained high at a high level; 3) The destocking of silicon material leads to a downward price and the terminal demand returns to equilibrium; 4) Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) : carry out technical cooperation on biodegradable materials PPC with Changchun Yinghua Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the subsidiary has completed the filing of integration projects to further improve the layout of new energy materials platform; 5) Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) : Sri Lanka, the leader of restructured EVA resin, held an unconditional meeting and was placed in the leader of China’s EVA resin industry, and its profitability is expected to be improved; 6) Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) : acquire Fengyang Silicon Valley to realize integrated operation, supplement the original glass production capacity and improve profitability.
Recommended object:
New energy vehicles: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , etc. pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc. Photovoltaic: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , etc. it is suggested to pay attention to: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi solar energy, etc; Wind power: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , etc. it is recommended to pay attention to: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , etc. Industrial control of power grid: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) etc; Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) etc; Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) .
Risk warning events: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policies are less than expected; Market fluctuation risk, power curtailment risk and technology renewal risk brought by de subsidy; The investment in power grid was less than expected, and the promotion of power grid 5g construction was less than expected. Industry measurement deviation risk.
