Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on December 17, 2021, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 423.6 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 4.7 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 224.1 million barrels, an increase of 5.5 million barrels per week; The distillate oil inventory was 124.2 million barrels, an increase of 400000 barrels per week; Propane inventory was 70023 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 849000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on December 17, 2021, U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, a weekly decrease of 100000 barrels / day and an increase of 600000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On December 23, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 586, with an increase of 7 in the week and 238 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 133, with a weekly decrease of 34 and an annual increase of 51. Among them, there are 480 oil production rigs in the United States, an increase of 5 in the week and 216 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were tetrachloroethylene (up 25.8%), melamine (up 11.6%) and caustic soda (up 9.9%); the top three were vitamin B6 (down 17.4%), maleic anhydride (down 14.5%) and power coal (Zaozhuang) (down 12.2%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were dichloromethane (up 27.9%), maleic anhydride (up 19.4%) and ammonium nitrate International (up 17.8%); the top three with price decreases were trichloroethylene (down 55.4%), R134a (down 34.1%) and melamine (down 33.7%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are PTA (up 534.3%), polyethylene (up 51.8%) and R410A (up 50.0%); the top three with price difference decrease are butyl acrylate (down 108.0%), PX (down 43.6%) and maleic anhydride (benzene method) (down 30.0%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price difference increase were calcium carbide PVC price difference (up 305.1%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (up 170.5%) and PTA price difference (up 145.6%); the top three with price difference decrease were butadiene price difference (down 2954.5%), polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 341.5%) and butyl acrylate price difference (down 180.9%).
Investment proposal and investment object
New energy vehicle enterprises represented by Tesla and Weilai choose PU synthetic leather to replace leather and PVC artificial leather, and all choose environmentally friendly PU leather with low VOC, which represents that environmentally friendly PU leather is the future trend and is expected to drive the demand for solvent-free products. In addition, polyurethane materials are made into power battery buffer pads and thermal insulation patches to provide reliable cushioning, sealing, thermal insulation and vibration isolation for lithium-ion batteries, which is an important incremental demand in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the polyurethane subdivision leader Shanghai Huide Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603192) (603192, buy) which actively distributes high-end polyurethane products and is about to double its production capacity after the new project reaches its capacity.
Traditional chemical enterprises extend downstream by virtue of cost and industrial chain advantages and serve sustainable development. It is suggested to pay attention to the coal chemical industry leader Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426, buy) with significant cost advantages and continuous project expansion, and the southwest chlor alkali leader Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) (002386, buy) with “one body and two wings” transformation and upgrading entering the stage of full realization and continuously improving the layout of cathode materials.
Under the background of the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity, we believe that light hydrocarbon chemical enterprises have great value under the carbon neutralization scenario because they have olefins with the lowest energy consumption and hydrogen with the lowest emission, which still need to be revalued. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309, purchased), satellite Chemistry (002648, purchased), Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) (002221, not rated) Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) (603113, buy).
Risk statement
The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The change of epidemic situation is less than the expected risk; Political risk; Capacity digestion fails to meet expectations; The market capacity of new applications is less than expected.
