Market performance:
This week, the Shanghai composite index was – 0.39% this week, closing at 3618.05; Gem refers to -4.00% this week, closing at 3297.11 points; CSI 300 this week – 0.67%, closing at 4921.35 points. The real estate sector + 1.23%, ranking fifth among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 16.2% year-on-year and + 34.7% month on month
This week (December 17-december 23), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focus on tracking is about 4.3 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.2% and a month-on-month increase of + 34.7%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) is 1.09 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.5% and a month-on-month increase of + 22.4%; the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) is 2.44 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.8% and a (14 cities) the total turnover of first-hand houses was 770000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 46.6% and a month on month increase of – 6.1%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 49.2% year-on-year and + 1.7% month on month
This week (December 17-december 23), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focused on tracking was about 940000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 49.2% and a month-on-month increase of + 1.7%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 360000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 37.4% and a month-on-month increase of + 31.8%; the transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 370000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 55.4% and a month-on- (7 cities) the total transaction area of second-hand houses was 210000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 52.8% and a month on month increase of – 13.9%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was -0.17% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was November 1
As of December 2021 23. This week, the inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focus on tracking is about 94.56 million m3, with a month on month ratio of -0.17%, The overall decontamination cycle (by area) is about 11.1 months. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totals 30.68 million m3, with a month on month ratio of + 1.49%, and the decontamination cycle is 8.8 months; the inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) is 32.05 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 2.39%, and the decontamination cycle is 8.9 months; the inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) is 31.83 million m3, with a month on month ratio of + 0.54%, and the decontamination cycle is 22.4 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 22.51 million m3, the total land transaction price is 28.7 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 1.57%
last week (12.13-12.19), the number of land supply in Baicheng is 147, and the corresponding land supply construction area is about 9.15 million m3; the number of land transactions in Baicheng is 366, and the corresponding land construction area is about 22.51 million m3, the total land transaction price is about 28.7 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 1.57%. Among them, the land transaction construction areas in first tier, second tier and third tier cities are 240000 m3, 8.4 million m3 and 13.86 million m3 respectively The corresponding land premium rates were 0.00%, 0.05% and 2.56%, respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the third batch of centralized land supply was sold in many cities, showing a trend of hot and cold differentiation. On the whole, although the land auction policies in some cities are looser than those in the second batch, they have not played a substantive positive role in the market. For example, all the reserve prices of the third batch of land supply in Tianjin and Shenyang are traded, and the flow auction rates are 18% and 70% respectively, while the premium rates of the first round and the second round are as high as 11% and 10% respectively, and the flow auction rates are 22% and 12%. The third batch of land supply in Wuhan has stabilized and warmed up. Different from the phenomenon of “national advance and people retreat” in other cities, the bidding enterprises are more diversified, Among them, the joint venture between Hong Kong Ruian real estate and Wuhan urban construction won the land for the comprehensive real estate project in Wuchang District with a total price of 17 billion yuan (including tax). At the end of the year, the margin of the real estate credit environment improved, but the response of the third batch of land supply was uneven, and it is predicted that differentiation may be transmitted to the sales end at the beginning of next year. Following the “three red lines”, The introduction of policies such as “real estate loan concentration management”, “land supply concentration” and “real estate tax reform pilot” will restrict both supply and demand. The wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large amplification is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Looking back, the low base effect subsided, the Q4 fundamentals were under pressure, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) quality targets of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
