Main points:
Nonferrous Metals underperformed the market this week, down 5.13%. Among the sub sectors, the aluminum sector increased the most, with an increase of 2.17%; In addition, the top three declines were nonferrous metal plate, copper plate and magnetic material plate, with declines of 5.13%, 4.28% and 3.70% respectively.
Base metal
The current market of base metals is running strongly in this cycle. Futures market: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel increased by 1.60%, 3.16%, 4.02%, 1.90% and 2.40% over the same period last week; Lead fell 1.37% compared with the same period last week. China’s spot market: copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel increased by 0.56%, 3.51%, 0.93%, 1.14% and 1.18% respectively; Lead fell 1.90% from last week. Copper: copper prices rose slightly this week. The supply side disturbance continued, Las bambas mine was shut down and the transportation at many ports in Inner Mongolia was limited, which affected the supply of copper concentrate in the short term. In terms of demand, the impact of power restriction policy is limited, the operating rate of processing enterprises is gradually increasing, and the downstream purchase intention is relatively weak near the off-season of pre Festival demand. China’s inventory continued to bottom, giving some support to copper prices. SHFE copper inventory was about 27200 tons, down 21.43% from the same period last week. Aluminum: the aluminum price has an obvious upward trend this week, up 4% compared with the same period last week. On the supply side, China’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still restricted by policy factors such as dual control of energy consumption and environmental protection production restriction; Energy costs in Europe continue to rise, and several primary aluminum producers plan to reduce production. About 2.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in Europe are produced by natural gas. Under the background of natural gas shortage and rising prices, the subsequent concerns of aluminum plants about reducing production are still on, and China’s foreign aluminum prices are rising. In addition, due to the decline in the prices of raw materials such as alumina in China, the pressure on the production cost of electrolytic aluminum was relieved, and the profitability of alumina in China rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 329200 tons, down 0.39% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 490000 yuan / ton, up 0.41% from last week. The price of cobalt salt showed an upward trend as a whole, and the price of cobalt sulfate was 101000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; The price of Co3O4 was 382500 yuan / ton, the same as last week. The spread of the epidemic in South Africa affected the delay of shipping to Hong Kong, the tension of raw material supply remained unabated, and the price of cobalt continued to rise. The tightening of China’s import supply of cobalt raw materials, the lower operating rate of cobalt salt plants in Zhejiang and the tight spot inventory of cobalt salt stimulate the rise of short-term prices. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt increased. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 240000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.87% over last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 202500 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.86% over last week. The tight supply of lithium resources is difficult to change in the short term. The gas restriction policy in heating season in Qinghai has an impact on the local Salt Lake production, and some manufacturers have entered the annual maintenance stage, which affects the lithium salt supply. In terms of demand, the demand in the terminal market continued to be high. From January to November this year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached a new high, with a cumulative output of more than 3 million. Under the background of the continuous expansion of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the lithium salt market demand continues to improve, and the lithium price is expected to remain high. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
noble metal
Precious metals fluctuated upward as a whole this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1810.1/oz, up 0.64% from last week; Spot gold in London was US $1805.2/ounce, down 0.14%. Silver: Comex silver price was US $22.91/oz, up 2.46% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $22.67/ounce, up 0.09%. Recently, the Federal Reserve announced that taper accelerated, increased the scale of monthly debt reduction, and the havoc of covid-19 variant virus increased the market’s concerns about economic recovery, and the overall gold price was strong. Recently, inflation has remained high. The PCE price index of the United States in November rose by 5.7% year-on-year. The high rise of the price index has enhanced the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate increase in advance. It is expected that the gold price will remain volatile in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk statement
The demand is less than expected; The supply of upstream mines exceeded expectations; Risk of policy changes.
