Since the beginning of the year, The sector continued to outperform the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index fell by – 2.96%, the gem index fell by – 4.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by – 0.67%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by – 0.39%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lagged behind the market by – 2.56 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2021, the chemical industry The (Shenwan) industry index rose by 32.96%, the gem index rose by 11.15%, the CSI 300 index fell by – 5.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.17%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector led the market by 28.79 percentage points.
Event: according to the data of customs and Baichuan information, the export volume of sucralose in November was 1065.28 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 52.87% and a month on month increase of 19.99%; From January to November, the total export volume of sucralose was 9489.51 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 30.32%.
Comments: the export of sucralose increased month on month, and it is optimistic that the high prosperity of the industry will continue. In November, the export volume of sucralose was 1065.28 tons, an increase of 93.81% over November 2019; From January to November, the cumulative export volume of sucralose was 9489.51 tons, an increase of 47.07% year-on-year from January to November 2019, and there was strong foreign demand. In the short term, due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the supply side may shrink further by carrying out annual maintenance with individual enterprises; Since December, most annual orders have been negotiated successively. New Year’s day, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching, and the demand may be further improved; The high price of raw materials supports the price. This week, the price of DMF is 16487 yuan / ton, the price of sulfoxide chloride is 4350 yuan / ton, and the price of sucralose may continue to rise. In the long run, since 2011, the price of sucralose has fallen sharply, the outbreak of the epidemic has accelerated, and the backward production capacity of the industry has been cleared. At present, only Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Kangbao biochemical and other enterprises can stabilize production; According to the latest document of the general office of the Ministry of ecological environment, sucralose is a “two high” industry. With the dual control of energy consumption and the promotion of environmental protection policies, the supply of the industry will be orderly into a high probability event in the future; Benefiting from the rapid penetration of sugar free drinks and the iteration of sweetener product structure, the demand for high-quality Sweetener Sucralose increased better. With the orderly progress of double control of energy consumption, raw materials are expected to return to a reasonable range. Therefore, under the background of limited supply and good demand, the prosperity of sucralose is expected to continue.
Product prices rose and fell with each other: the products with the highest price increase include melamine (12.35%), vitamin B5 (calcium pantothenate, 98%) (10.87%), methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (10.87%), isobutyraldehyde (8.05%) and octanol (7.14%). The products with the highest price decline include: LNG market price (- 22.84%), vitamin B6 (98%) (- 17.39%), R134a (- 15.15%), maleic anhydride (- 13.94%), and power coal (- 12.96%).
The crude oil center has risen, so it is recommended to pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. Affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) in the business cycle.
New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is recommended to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
