The third round of centralized land supply continued to cool down, and the overall premium rate further decreased. A total of 6 cities completed the third centralized land supply this week. 1) Wuhan: 3 of the 40 plots were withdrawn, and the remaining 37 were traded at the reserve price. The total transaction amount was 49.3 billion yuan, and the flow auction rate decreased to 8%. 2) Shenyang: among the 27 plots, 19 were auctioned and 8 were sold, with a turnover rate of 70%, of which 1 had a premium, with an overall premium rate of 0.4%, with a total turnover of 4.4 billion yuan. 3) Tianjin: all the reserve prices of 11 plots were traded, with a total turnover of 7.7 billion yuan. 4) Changsha: there were 23 transactions in 26 plots, and the flow auction rate decreased to 12%. Only one plot had a premium, the overall premium rate was 0.9%, and the total transaction amount was 14.4 billion yuan. 5) Hangzhou: all 35 plots were traded, and the flow auction rate decreased to 0%, of which 24 lands touched the maximum price and entered the lottery stage. The overall premium rate was 7%, and the total transaction amount was 76.3 billion yuan. 6) Changchun: only 2 of the 11 plots were sold at the reserve price, with a flow auction rate of 82% and a total transaction amount of 1.9 billion yuan. During this week, the land market was warm and cold. Hangzhou benefited from the return of the land hook policy, and the land auction market warmed up, while the land auction markets in Changchun and Shenyang were obviously cold. On the whole, the heat of the third round of land auction was still low. We believe that the performance of Hangzhou is only an example, and the recovery of the national land market may occur only after the sales end recovers.
Policy adjustment entered the third stage, and local policies began to follow up one after another. The industrial policy adjustment can be divided into three stages. In the third stage, the tone set by the Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference is the signal, and local policies begin to follow up one after another. This week’s economic work conference of the Jilin provincial Party committee pointed out that cities and counties should be encouraged and guided to carry out house purchase subsidies and loan interest discounts, and support farmers to buy houses in cities; Changchun has implemented the resettlement fee for key college graduates and the house purchase subsidy policy for national leading talents, raised the house purchase subsidy standard for farmers entering the city, and extended the validity period of relevant support policies to June 30, 2022. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the past month, at least 25 places, including Guilin, Jinjiang and Hohhot, have introduced subsidized house purchase policies in order to boost the real estate market. Among them, the policies are mainly concentrated in the third and fourth tier cities, focusing on talent subsidies and subsidies for new citizens to settle down and buy houses. Under the tone of the central government’s marginal easing policy on real estate, local governments gradually began to take action.
The central bank supports high-quality M & A loans of real estate enterprises, which is conducive to accelerating the integration of the industry. Recently, the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice, mainly focusing on six aspects, including: steadily and orderly carrying out M & a loan business, increasing bond financing support, actively providing M & A financing consulting services, improving M & a service efficiency, doing a good job in risk management, and establishing a reporting system and publicity mechanism. The notice clearly points out that “support high-quality real estate enterprises to register and issue debt financing instruments in the inter-bank market and raise funds for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises”. The central bank and the cbcirc encourage high-quality enterprises to increase mergers and acquisitions of real estate projects in accordance with the market-oriented principle, which is conducive to resolving risks, promoting industry liquidation and accelerating industry integration.
Investment suggestion: we believe that we should pay attention to four main investment lines: 1) development enterprises: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, rongchuang service, Baolong business, Shimao service, etc; 3) Liquor travel enterprises: Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Fosun travel culture, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Oct, etc; 4) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
