Event: on December 21, 2021, the third round of land auction in Hangzhou ended, with a total transaction amount of about 76.3 billion yuan, a total transaction construction area of about 4.16 million square meters, an average floor price of 18333 yuan / square meter, and all 35 plots were successfully transferred.
The supply of land was sold in full, and the heat of land auction increased significantly
With the end of the third round of local auction in Hangzhou, the total turnover reached about 76.3 billion yuan, an increase of 198% over the second round of turnover of 25.6 billion yuan; The total transaction area is about 4.16 million square meters, an increase of 144.71% compared with the second round of 1.7 million square meters; The average floor price was 18333 yuan / m2, an increase of 22% compared with the second round of floor price of 15030 yuan / m2. All the 35 plots listed for transfer were successfully transferred. Compared with the 60 plots supplied in the second round, only 13 plots were finally sold, and the flow auction rate was 78%, the third round of land auction increased significantly; The proportion of premium rate and reserve price transactions has also changed from 5% and 61.5% in the second round to 7% and 25.7% respectively. Among them, 24 lands have reached the upper limit of premium rate, entered the lottery link, and finally concluded the transaction. The highest bidding times have reached 78 rounds, and the overall competition is fierce.
State owned enterprises have become the main force of land acquisition, and local private enterprises have performed well
Many brands of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises actively participated in the local auction, including China Resources, Jindi, Xuhui, Binjiang, Jianfa, poly, green city, etc. Among the real estate enterprises that finally acquired land, in terms of land acquisition amount, China Resources ranked first with 2 parcels of land of 12.28 billion yuan; From the number of land taken, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (mainly joint land acquisition) it ranks first with green city China in terms of four land parcels. This time, state-owned enterprises in land auction have become the main force in land acquisition: the number of land parcels acquired accounts for more than 30%, which has greatly increased compared with 15% of the number of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises in the second round. A total of 17 state-owned enterprises, including brand state-owned enterprises CNOOC real estate, Yuexiu group and local state-owned enterprises fuchunshanju, Hangzhou Chengdong investment and Hangzhou Metro Group, have gained; the same The participation of private enterprises was also high, especially local private enterprises. Compared with the five local private enterprises in the second round, a total of 10 local private enterprises obtained land in this round, of which Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ranked first in the number of land acquisition with four plots.
The third round of local auction market in Hangzhou has fully warmed up, which is significantly different from the second round of local auction:
1) The land auction rules were relaxed and the enthusiasm to participate in the auction was improved. Due to the cold of the second round of land supply, the local government adjusted the rules accordingly in the third batch of land supply. The land hook system was restored in the third batch of land auction rules issued on November 20, and the upper limit of premium rate was reduced from 15% in the second round to 10%, At the same time, the requirements of “no more than 5 plots for which the same real estate enterprise participates in bidding” and “bidders must have real estate development qualification for more than one year” have been cancelled. The requirements of “bidding quality” added in the second round have also been changed to “fixed quality” this time. The construction quality standards of each parcel of land are formulated by the government and the area of public supporting facilities has been increased by 5%. The land auction policy is based on the access threshold, registration restrictions The relaxation of land requirements and other standards not only improves the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction, but also plays a certain role in improving the land acquisition profit margin of real estate enterprises.
2) Since December, the central government has repeatedly stressed “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”, re raised the pillar industries and released a strong signal significance. The central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement, and the regulatory authorities also began to correct the credit policy, Support the rational issuance of real estate development loans and M & A loans; This series of policy changes have improved market confidence and real estate enterprises’ expectation of the end of the policy, thus enhancing the confidence of real estate enterprises in obtaining land.
3) The proportion of hot plots has doubled, and the profit / decentralization is more guaranteed. In terms of plot structure, there are 20 plots in the main urban area, accounting for nearly 60% of the total transferred plots, while there are only 17 plots in the main urban area, accounting for less than 30% of the 60 transferred plots in the second round of land auction, At the same time, the reduction of the upper limit of premium rate in the local auction rules and the profit margin guarantee given by the higher premium space of urban hot plots are superimposed. The confidence in the de conversion rate of high-quality plots makes the real estate enterprises strengthen their land acquisition.
Investment suggestion: the three rounds of land auction warming in Hangzhou has delayed the continuous cooling pace of the land market since the second half of the year to a certain extent, and also brought some good expectations for the future land auction market. We expect that the land market and the whole real estate market may continue to improve to a certain extent in the future on the premise that more cities take out hot plots, the central real estate policy continues to warm up and the local government land supply policy continues to improve. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group and Longguang group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, green city service, poly property, CNOOC property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Jinke service and Xuhui Yongsheng service. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to those with strong operation ability of business management formats: China Resources Vientiane life and Baolong business.
Risk tip: the land supply policy has become stricter, the house price has fallen sharply, the sales decontamination is less than expected, and the epidemic has rebounded for the second time
